The Irish Times view on Ireland’s rising sea levels: profoundly worrying

Confirmation that sea-level rise in Dublin is occurring faster than predicted in climate models is profoundly worrying. It puts the capital in the same category as Cork. The cities are especially vulnerable because of exacerbating local factors on top of climate change impacts that have yet to be identified.

Every coastal area faces into decades of unrelenting sea-level rise due to global warming, but in Dublin over recent years it has been happening at around double the rate of global sea-level rise, according to scientists at Maynooth University. They warn local factors need to be identified urgently to ensure Dublin is adequately prepared for inevitable sea-level rise due to global warming that is accelerating the melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers.

Recent flooding events reinforce the need to fully understand how sea levels are changing around Ireland with the biggest cities being most at risk

The scientists base their findings on an updated sea-level dataset for Dublin stretching from 1938 to 2016. The additional sea-level rise occurring in Dublin and Cork – confirmed in a 2021 study – is coming on top of inevitable global sea-level rise driven by human-induced climate change. The researchers note the most likely scenario from the latter is a rise up to 1m by 2150, taking into account current emission trends and assuming reductions fall short of targets.

In Dublin’s case, land reclamation leading to compaction of sediments may be a factor, while in the southern capital it may be due to subsidence in Cork harbour due to manmade or natural impacts, or “a hangover from the last Ice Age”.

Elevated sea-level rise in Dublin higher than predicted due to climate change, study finds

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Most Irish cities are coastal, with 40 per cent of the population living within 5km of the coast. Recent flooding events reinforce the need to fully understand how sea levels are changing around Ireland with the biggest cities being most at risk. Understanding all factors at play will enable more accurate climate projections and help to ensure local adaptation is optimised with adequate protection for households, critical businesses, essential utility services and coastal amenities. While allowance for additional local factors may be already built into Dublin’s climate plan, in a scenario of many unknowns this provides little comfort.