The electorate delivered its verdict and the political landscape has been redrawn. Voter dissatisfaction that was evident before the election began, manifested itself in a massive swing towards 'Independents and Others', while Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin also benefited. Fine Gael and the Labour party lost heavily and were denied an opportunity to form a new government.
As counting continued, the final allocation of seats remains uncertain. But the intention of voters was clear. They wanted a more accessible, responsive administration and, in particular, they wished for improvements in healthcare and housing over reductions in taxation.
‘Fairness’ was a concept that resonated strongly during the campaign, as did local activism and a suspicion of establishment politics.
In delivering a damning indictment of the performances of the Labour Party and Fine Gael, the bulk of swing voters transferred to Independents and smaller parties.
A Fianna Fáil surge challenged the dominance of Fine Gael during the closing days of the campaign while Sinn Féin made steady progress but failed to realise its ambitions. This further fragmentation of the party system will make it impossible for Fine Gael or for Fianna Fáil to form a stable majority government with support from Independents and Others. Sinn Féin has ruled out participation in government while the Labour Party may withdraw to lick its wounds.
The obvious solution, at a time of partial economic recovery and worrying international developments, is the establishment of a government composed of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. That would provide the key requirement of stability and a prospect of economic continuity.
It would also bring political risks. Micheál Martin and Enda Kenny ruled out the proposition of a grand alliance during the election campaign and elements within both parties would probably resist it on cultural and historic grounds.
In spite of that, 43 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters were found to favour such an arrangement, almost double the level of support it attracted within Fine Gael. An alternative approach, under which Fianna Fáil would prop up a Fine Gael-led minority government from outside – while Sinn Féin accused it of collaboration and worse – would prove to be even less appetising.
The tyranny of numbers and the necessity to form a stable government should trump any visceral resistance to the creation of a Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil alliance. But it will not be a quick or an easy process. In the coming weeks, intensive discussions involving Mr Kenny and Mr Martin are likely to take place separately with ‘Independents and Others’, and perhaps with the Labour Party, as alternative government options are explored and dismissed.
Only after the Dáil meets on March 10th and fails to elect a government will the real negotiations begin. Those talks will focus on producing a composite programme for government and a sharing of ministerial power that will have to be endorsed by a special Fianna Fáil ardfheis. Inevitably, party promises will be modified.
The local elections of 2014 signalled a dramatic shift in political support that has now been replicated at national level. The combined strength of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has fallen from 69 per cent in 2007 to 50 per cent today while support for Independents and smaller parties doubled to 30 per cent.
Civil war politics has been dead for some time. It is time for a formal realignment.