The new British prime minister Theresa May has yet to move the United Kingdom's leaving the European Union from the tautological "Brexit means Brexit" to a more precise definition of the desired outcome. Ireland's pivotal role in the process was underlined this week after her spokeswoman said one of the ministers responsible, David Davis, had expressed a personal opinion rather than official policy when he said in relation to the Irish border it was "very improbable" that the UK could regain control over immigration from the EU while remaining part of the European single market.
Mr Davis was in Dublin yesterday to meet the Ministers for Foreign Affairs and Justice and to attend the British Irish Chamber of Commerce dinner with the Taoiseach last night. He emphasised that there will be no return to the borders of the past and no unnecessary barriers to trade.
He wants to see the Irish-British relationship strengthened in a continuing European setting, whatever the difficulties Brexit throws up.
Nonetheless it is hard not to accept the logic of his earlier remark that the precise definition of these relations will depend on how the UK relates to the single market. Mrs May wants a bespoke outcome respecting her country’s scale and importance rather than the confines of any existing model. Her calm yet firm approach to leadership has assured her time and respect to work on this between now and the end of the year.
Beyond that there will be sharply diminishing patience from EU partners anxious to get negotiations going, facing elections and demanding more precise answers. Her government must choose in coming months whether to optimise trade by remaining close to the single market or immigration control by stepping outside it.
Already there are indications Mrs May is leaning towards the first option more than the second. She has a highly tricky task to negotiate such choices through a divided Conservative party and electorate and then not to reveal her hand to other EU governments. She has made it clear she will make the final decisions.
This is a multilateral negotiation between 27 governments, the Commission and the UK; not a bilateral one between Dublin and London. Ireland has a huge stake in the outcome, whether on keeping open the border with Northern Ireland, maintaining the peace process there, trade and the common travel area with the UK or investment opportunities and competition between the two states.
The Government has effectively defined and communicated these priorities to the British government and its European partners since Britain voted to leave the EU in a referendum in June. To achieve them it needs goodwill from the governments – and from the European Commission, notwithstanding its now sharp disagreement over the Apple ruling.