The Coalition has failed to convince the electorate that it deserves a second term in office and, by a margin of two-to-one, voters have expressed a desire for change in the latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll. In spite of that, the return of a Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition is regarded as the most likely outcome.
That perception will encourage the government parties to persevere with a “steady-as-she-goes” campaign, based on the economy. In their favour, those social groups most satisfied with their performance – elderly people and farmers – have the highest voting record.
Because of the increasingly fragmented nature of political support, particularly involving smaller parties and Independents, the system of proportional representation can be expected to throw up unexpected results.
In Dublin, for example, more than one-third of voters favour various Independents and smaller parties, but the Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit group is the only one to secure double digit support. Because of extremely competitive campaigns in all constituencies, voting transfers will decide the outcome of the general election.
Distrust of the style and direction of the Fine Gael leadership is reflected in a finding that, by a margin of five-to-one, voters would prefer it to continue within a coalition arrangement. Even a majority of its own supporters do not wish it to secure an overall majority.
Stuck at seven per cent in the opinion polls, the Labour Party is seen as the most appropriate coalition partner by one-third of respondents from all political groups. That positive impression could benefit its candidates and attract later preferences.
The motivation of people in choosing a candidate reflects a general loss of confidence in central government. Twice as many voters are influenced by a candidate’s performance and ability at local level as their likelihood to deliver on promises or to be trustworthy. Tradition and family allegiances remain an important voting consideration.
This is particularly pronounced for Fianna Fáil voters at 29 per cent, compared to Fine Gael at 12 per cent. In Dublin, however, traditional party loyalty has lost its appeal and has declined in importance to three per cent, compared to 17 per cent in Leinster and 15 per cent in Munster. Sinn Féin voters accord the greatest weight to issues of policy and ideology.
Years of austerity have generated a reluctance to give the Government credit for improvements in the economy. One-in-five voters felt it was responsible for most, or all, of the progress made; nearly two-thirds acknowledged it had made some impact, but 18 per cent would not give it the time of day.
Similarly, in spite of continuing job creation and an expansionary budget, 39 per cent of those surveyed declared themselves to be worse off. There is an unequivocal message there.