The dramatic realignment of French politics that began with Emmanuel Macron’s breakthrough in 2017 is still taking shape. The president’s re-election last month clarified that his success in breaking the old duopoly of the country’s politics was no aberration but proof of a fundamental shift. Those established parties – the Socialists and the centre-right Republicans – retain power and influence at parliamentary, regional and local levels, but their weakness has allowed new formations to emerge and strengthen on both sides of the spectrum.
One of the chief beneficiaries has been the veteran politician Jean-Luc Mélenchon, whose new red-green left alliance put up a strong showing behind Macron’s Ensemble in the first round of parliamentary election on Sunday. Macron’s centrist bloc is likely to emerge as the largest in the National Assembly after the second round next Sunday, with polling firms forecasting it will win between 260 and 295 seats, against 160-210 for Mélenchon’s New Popular Ecological and Social Union. A grouping needs 289 seats for a majority.
The third major camp in French politics – the far-right, led by Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National – has traditionally struggled with the first-past-the-post voting system for parliament. Le Pen’s party is forecast to win up to 45 seats, a significant increase on the eight it won in 2017.
The composition of the assembly will have a big influence on Macron’s presidency. If he loses the majority he won in 2017, he will need support from other parties, such as the conservative Republicans, to enact a promised rise in the retirement age from 62 to 65 or overhaul the benefits system. A majority for Mélenchon’s alliance would constrain Macron further, leaving him with control over foreign policy and defence but having to appoint a new, left-wing prime minister and to work with a government hostile to his policy agenda.
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But Mélenchon can fall short of that majority and still claim victory. After five years in the political wilderness, the French left, he can claim, is back in the contest.