The visit to Kyiv of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, France’s President Emmanuel Macron and Italian prime minister Mario Draghi was above all a public demonstration of solidarity and commitment to further arms and aid from the EU’s three largest economies and politically most important states.
But the subtext of talks with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is likely to have reflected some uncomfortable realities in the relationship, Ukrainian suspicions of halfheartedness in supplying weapons and wavering in political support for an unequivocal Ukrainian military victory.
Macron’s comments that Russia should not be “humiliated” have faced derision in Ukraine. And many in Kyiv have come to regard European talk of peace, however far in the future, as covert pressure to compromise at a cost of territory. Such sentiment is undoubtedly on the rise in the EU – a poll in 10 EU states by the European Council on Foreign Relations finds a majority of Europeans wanting Ukraine to make peace with Russia immediately, even if that means losing territory.
A touchstone, however, of political solidarity will have been the extent of the trio’s support for formal candidate status for Ukraine – and for neighbouring Moldova – which the Commission is expected to recommend on Friday and leaders will debate at next week’s summit. Although some countries, notably Denmark and Portugal, are expressing reservations over Ukraine’s lack of preparedness for the lengthy accession discussions and warn against giving it false hopes, Zelenskiy will have been told that there is likely to be a conditional agreement on candidacy.
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Accession negotiations could not begin until Ukraine is once again at peace, and Kyiv has taken greater strides in fighting corruption, strengthening the rule of law, and overhauling democratic institutions. But candidacy will represent an important symbolic “hands off” to Russia.
Meanwhile, as the US pledges a further $1 billion in weapons, Nato defence ministers are sitting down to discuss further arms deliveries, notably Ukraine’s shortage of long-range and heavy-calibre artillery.