Firmly setting behind them the post-Brexit reluctance even to discuss further enlargement, EU leaders have opened the door to an historic new phase of accessions to the east.
In an important gesture of political solidarity with Ukraine and Moldova, following a strong recommendation from the European Commission, both states were unanimously offered “candidate” status with the prospect, subject to further internal reform, of a likely 10 years of accession discussions. Although Sweden and Finland took only three years from candidacy to membership, the latest to join – Croatia, Bulgaria, and Romania – took a decade. And talks with Ukraine will not even start until the country is once again at peace, although EU officials say Kyiv has already adopted 70 per cent of the “acquis”, the necessary judicial and institutional alignment.
Georgia and Bosnia Herzegovina were also offered a promise of candidacy if they move further down the road of reform. Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey all have the status of membership candidates, the latter since 1999. But all was not harmonious this week. Western Balkan leaders berated Bulgaria for obstruction of North Macedonian demands to begin formal negotiations.
EU decision-making is too easily log-jammed. That ability of a single state to block otherwise unanimous decisions will need to be replaced by qualified majority voting ahead of further accession, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz argued ahead of the meeting. The chancellor also urged broader “institutional reforms” of the EU, which would probably require treaty change, and said that such reforms “should be used to strengthen democracy and the rule of law in the EU”. It is not only Ukraine that will have to prepare for membership, but the EU itself will also need to reform its cumbersome procedures and decision-making to be capable of further enlarging without permanent gridlock. Nevertheless, the EU “during the last week moved forward with giant steps”, as France’s president Emmanuel Macron said.
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The EU is sending an important signal to Russia. This is not yet the formal commitment to defend Ukraine that will come from full membership, but a statement that the EU will not be intimidated by Moscow. Unlike Nato, it is ready to welcome Kyiv as a member whether Moscow likes it or not. Candidate status has already delivered an important morale boost to beleaguered Ukraine. Just as importantly, the summit recommitted itself to practical assistance. Last month, the European Council adopted a sixth package of sanctions against Moscow, including plans to embargo most imports of Russian oil. And the summit statement pledged that in addition to more arms, the Commission “will soon present a proposal to grant Ukraine new exceptional macro-financial assistance of up to €9 billion in 2022″.