For the first time since its foundation 100 years ago there are more Catholics than Protestants in Northern Ireland, according to the census figures released yesterday. Nine per cent say they now have no religion. National identity figures report 32 per cent defining themselves as British only, 29 per cent as Irish and 20 per cent as Northern Irish. Taken together the figures register an historic change. They reveal a pluralisation of political and religious identities compared to the past as Northern Ireland’s future is argued out between three minorities rather than two dominant blocs.
These demographic trends have developed over several decades of social change. They were clearly visible in the 2011 census, which showed Catholics in a majority among younger age cohorts and Protestants topping only the older ones. The figures reflect a range of factors: real but diminishing differential birth rates between the two groups; greater job opportunities and less emigration among Catholics than Protestants from the 1980s; and more recently a greater propensity of cultural Protestants than cultural Catholics to say they have no religion. One way or another the figures now represent a dramatic demographic shift compared to the Protestant dominated six counties carved out by partition in 1921.
It is essential not to draw facile, hasty or triumphalist political conclusions from these new census figures. A cultural Catholic plurality in Northern Ireland does not automatically translate into a rapid majority favouring a united Ireland. There is an ebb and flow of opinion among Catholics in favour of devolution within the UK over the last two decades depending on the effectiveness of power-sharing. Many nationalists still need to be convinced Irish unity would enhance their political and economic well-being. They see the need for more community reconciliation, a fuller working out of the Belfast Agreement institutions and greater participation in the Irish Government’s Shared Island initiative before that decision is posed and made.
Preparation for possible futures as part of a transformed Irish state or within a reformed United Kingdom is nevertheless advisable for all communities in Northern Ireland. A weakening, more fragmented and less prosperous UK union drives the debates on Scottish independence, Welsh futures and Brexit, making it prudent to anticipate potentially rapid change in Britain. The importance of ‘others’ in the North’s electoral politics, reflected in growing support for the Alliance party, makes it necessary for unionists to develop convincing pragmatic arguments in favour of the UK’s union or of Irish unity by its supporters.
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The immediate priority should be to restore the power-sharing institutions and develop them so they can better reflect this more pluralist Northern Ireland.