A series of recent reports provide a shuddering warning that current global carbon emission levels have pushed the planet close to irreversible climate breakdown this century.
Their findings are a dire backdrop to the UN climate negotiations – Cop27 – in Egypt opening next weekend. “A 2.5-degree world” where vast areas of Earth become unliveable is an increasingly likely outcome.
The UN Environment Programme “emissions gap” report, which put commitments by governments, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), up against the reality of current emissions, and a “synthesis” report by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, came to similar conclusions.
The UNEP found “no credible path to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees”, and 2022 has been a year of “woefully inadequate progress” towards achieving that critical Paris Agreement target.
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Meanwhile the World Meteorological Organization confirmed global levels of the worst heating gases – carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane – all hit record highs in 2021 with an alarming surge in emissions of methane. The one glimmer of hope has been the International Energy Agency’s finding in a yearly review that CO2 from fossil fuels could peak by 2025 as renewable energy is increased amid geopolitical instability.
Ireland has the kind of ambition now being called for. It has committed to a 51 per cent cut in emissions by 2030 based on 2018 levels and to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. This is on a par with scaled-up EU targets under its green transition “Fit for 55″.
However Ireland’s problem is too much “business as usual”. It is already using up too much of its legally-binding carbon budget, with no indication when emissions will peak, never mind fall. Compounding matters is poor delivery of climate actions; lack of coordination across government departments and State agencies; and ineffective direction of civil society. Adopting an emergency mindset would help, for starters.