It will be of little comfort to its neighbours that an intercontinental ballistic missile test-fired yesterday by North Korea appears to have failed. The long-range missile, which reached an altitude of 2,000km and flew about 750km, then disappeared from radar over the Sea of Japan. Two short-range missiles were also fired. The launches sparked emergency warnings in northern Japan to shelter indoors.
They came a day after Pyongyang fired nearly two dozen missiles off its east and west coasts in its largest single-day deployment. One landed 167km northwest of the outlying island of Ulleung, where people took cover. Responding, South Korea fired missiles from fighter jets into waters near the North’s territory.
The sabre-rattling missile tests appear to have been president Kim Jong-un’s response to major exercises by South Korean and US forces involving 240 aircraft and thousands of military personnel.
But they also come at a time when North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and posturing have been causing increased alarm to its neighbours. Tensions – and fear of escalation – have been rising, with concern that Pyongyang is preparing to carry out its seventh nuclear test, and possibly more, before the end of the year. The US, South Korea and Japan warned days ago that any resumption of testing will be met with an “unparalleled” response. And the North’s military last month publicly amended its nuclear doctrine to permit first-use.
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Policy experts have also warned that North Korea has succeeded in developing low-yield tactical nuclear weapons which could be deployed against South Korea. In the view of the North this may make an invasion of the South winnable, and strengthen Pyongyang’s negotiating hand in any denuclearisation talks with the US.
Kim’s confidence is also reflected in the millions of tons of ammunition he has sold to Russia for use in Ukraine, in violation of UN sanctions, seeing the war as an opportunity to get Moscow more closely onside.