Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s lightning visit to the United States on Wednesday, where he was warmly received on Capitol Hill, underlines the paramount importance to Ukraine of a firm commitment to continuing support from its chief ally.
Zelenskiy seems to have got most of what he came for: a further $45 billion aid package and the supply of Patriot missiles to boost his air defences against Russian attacks on energy infrastructure. The US is not, however, willing to give Ukraine everything it asks for, refusing to supply long-range missiles which would allow Kyiv to carry out retaliatory strikes deep into Russia.
The war in Ukraine, or, as Vladimir Putin insists on calling it, Russia’s “special military operation”, launched more than 300 days ago, seems to have reached a point of stalemate, at a cost of well over 100,000 deaths. Moscow’s hopes for a quick victory achieved through the deployment of devastatingly superior force, leading to the replacement of Kyiv’s democratically elected government by a tame, pro-Moscow regime, did not materialise.
Russian forces, while showing themselves capable of extreme brutality, have often been less impressive as a fighting force, being well-matched in the field by the Ukrainians, increasingly supported with modern weaponry by the West. In a significant counterattack in November, Kyiv recaptured the strategic city of Kherson.
But Russia remains capable of knocking out Ukraine’s electricity and water supplies, leaving urban populations vulnerable to prolonged sub- zero temperatures. The purpose of such actions is to sap the people’s morale and force Kyiv to negotiate peace – entirely on Russian terms.
Since the start of the conflict Ukraine has enjoyed the firm support of the US and Europe, expressed in various ways, from supplying weapons and military advice, to financial aid to help rebuild infrastructure, to general humanitarian aid, to offering hospitality to the up to eight million refugees, chiefly women and children, who were forced to flee their country.
Putin has this week declared that his government has “no limits” in terms of its readiness to finance the war. He plans to further expand the size of the army and to remedy its combat deficiencies in time for an expected spring offensive. Little constrained by public opinion or any questioning of his costly policies by civil society or the media, he is obviously hoping that war fatigue will set in first in Ukraine, or among its allies.
But there is little point in the US or Europe being prepared to back Ukraine for a limited time only. It remains essential to demonstrate to Russia that the democratic world has no intention of allowing aggression against a sovereign state to be rewarded. And for that it is vital to stay the course, in spite of the considerable cost involved.