Much is at stake in the delicate negotiations now underway on the Northern Ireland protocol. The latest breakthrough in relation to EU access to UK trade data shows that technical progress is possible. The bigger question is whether this can be matched by a political breakthrough – and particularly a deal which allows the Stormont institutions to be restored.
There is a pathway to a deal on the operation of the protocol. EU access to UK data is part of that but further flexibility is also needed on both sides.The original deal on the protocol was bereft of any meaningful detail, as it was designed purely to break a political logjam. This may have suited both sides at the time, but it left a lot – too much – to be sorted out afterwards.
The solution to the current issues lies in the EU being as flexible as possible in relation to checks on goods entering Northern Ireland and the UK accepting that some level of controls is essential. As well as customs there are specific issues here in relation to food safety and the role of the European Court of Justice which will be difficult. The carrot for Northern Ireland is free access for goods to both the EU and UK markets – the price is some inevitable complexity for businesses.
No one has come up with a better way forward. The protocol, while far from perfect, is the only obvious way to square the post-Brexit circle, bar a resumption of checks on the Irish Border which the Government and EU would not accept.
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While a technical deal now looks possible, politically this is still really difficult. The British and Irish governments will do all they can to get the Democratic Unionist Party onside, but it is not clear whether it can be persuaded to support any deal which leaves the protocol in place. UK prime minister Rishi Sunak will also have to face down opposition from the Brexiteer lobby in London.
As ever with Brexit, the clock is ticking – towards January 19th, the current deadline for calling a Stormont election and to the 25th anniversary of the Belfast Agreement in April. It will take skill and courage to get this deal done.