The recent resignation of Moldova’s prime minister, ostensibly over soaring inflation, marks the latest stage in the worrying destabilisation of former Soviet bloc states ushered in by the invasion of neighbouring Ukraine. Resigning prime minister Natalia Gavrilita told journalists that no-one could have expected her government “to manage so many crises caused by Russian aggression”. A new pro-western government was sworn in last week.
Moscow has made clear that it is as concerned by the determined independence of the country and its overtures to join the EU as it had been by Kyiv’s. It regards Moldova, like Ukraine, as part of its legitimate sphere of influence. President Maia Sandu has accused Russia of plotting to overthrow its government. Ukraine claims it intercepted a Russian intelligence plan that showed “who, when and how it was going to break the democracy of Moldova and establish control” over the country. A day later a Russian missile streaked across Moldovan airspace on its way to Ukraine.
The tiny republic of 2.6 million, one of Europe’s poorest countries, has had to contend with large numbers of refugees from Ukraine, soaring inflation, power cuts and energy supply problems, and instability in the breakaway region of Transnistria controlled by Russian separatists.
Street protests organised by the opposition – which continued last weekend – have demanded the resignation of the government, the most serious political challenge to Sandu since her landslide election win in 2020 on a pro-EU and anti-corruption platform. The EU has offered the country €145 million in funding to keep its economy going and last June agreed to regard it, with Ukraine, as an accession candidate.
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Moldova’s tiny and ill-equipped defence forces would be unable to prevent a Russian invasion, but the latter’s preoccupation with the fiercely fought war in Ukraine makes the prospect less likely. Moscow is involved, however, in a hybrid war to undermine the government – disinformation, false news, cyber-attacks – clearly with a view to replacing it with a more pliable one.