Sudan was a latecomer to the Arab Spring, the 2010-11 moment of democratic hope that spread in popular uprisings in the Arab world, first from Tunisia and Egypt, and very belatedly reached Khartoum in 2019.
But, like most of those movements, Sudan’s popular revolution would turn to ashes. It saw its old Bashir regime, like that in Egypt, simply re-established by coup under new rulers, except this time even more brutal and paranoid, and now divided into two warring factions. In other countries – Libya, Yemen and Syria – the counterrevolution would turn into bloody civil war. It is an outcome that may yet be Sudan’s fate as neighbouring rival powers like the UAE and Egypt watch their allies fight it out and perhaps contemplate a role. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), one of the two main warring faction, already has close links with the Russian mercenaries of the Wagner Group.
Day and night air strikes, shelling and gun battles are now ripping across Khartoum, a city of six million, as the official army and the RSF compete to impose the will of two rival, notoriously brutal, generals. More than 400 have died and the violence has cut off water and power to much of the city, and damaged and closed hospitals. Many civilians are trapped in their homes or stranded, risking theft and looting if they venture out.
Countless organisations and foreign governments have offered to mediate between the generals but several ceasefires that had seemingly been agreed by both sides have been ignored.
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Meanwhile, an international collaborative scramble to evacuate foreign nationals has seen an initial wave of diplomatic staff and their families escape. The complex and dangerous challenge of evacuating scattered nationals is also now under way, with some 50 Irish and more than 1,000 European Union citizens among those flown out by Spain, France and other allies.
Ireland has despatched to neighbouring Djibouti a special forces team of 12 from the Army Ranger Wing and a small number of officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs, an emergency consular assistance team (Ecat) similar to that which aided in the evacuation of Kabul in 2021. Ireland does not possess airlift capacity but European allies have indicated a willingness to fly out other nationals.
The UN reports that up to 20,000 people – mostly women and children – have also fled Sudan to seek safety in Chad, across the border from Darfur, also the scene of fighting. In suburban Khartoum, buses are reportedly queuing up to carry people north towards Egypt, 1,000km away.
A bloody internal factional struggle for power is fast becoming a humanitarian and refugee crisis, and one that has the potential to turn into a regional war. . It remains to be seen whether plans for a 72-hour ceasefire announced late on Monday can start to reduce tensions.