The world is almost certain to experience record temperatures in the next five years and to exceed the critical 1.5-degree threshold above pre-industrial levels, according to the World Meteorological Organisation’s latest predictions.
Exceeding 1.5 degrees, which scientists have warned could have dire consequences, should be only temporary, it says. There is a 66 per cent likelihood of exceeding 1.5 degrees in at least one year between 2023 and 2027. That is little comfort when taking into account confirmation of accelerating warming in polar regions, which are likely to warm at three times the global average. This will impact on global weather and is disrupting weather across the northern hemisphere.
What is immediately threatening the planet is a marked acceleration of human impacts on the global climate system due to rising carbon emissions and fossil fuel consumption. This is sending the world into “uncharted territory”.
WMO secretary general Prof Petteri Taalas explained its projections do not mean we will permanently exceed the 1.5-degree threshold specified in the Paris agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years. WMO scientists suggest, however, the planet “will breach the 1.5-degree level on a temporary basis with increasing frequency”. The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has warned repeatedly that heating beyond that level would unleash a cascade of potentially irreversible impacts.
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New record temperatures were set in many parts of the world during extreme heatwaves in recent years though the Earth has been benefiting from the cooling effects of the naturally-occurring La Niña – a climate pattern arising from surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. But this is about to change as climate breakdown and the impact of a developing El Niño weather warming system combine. As La Niña ends and a new El Niño develops, there is a 98 per cent likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the hottest on record. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment.
Rather than squabbling over the latest data – in this case from Eurostat -– confirming that Ireland’s rising emissions profile is unquestionably out of kilter with most of Europe, the Government must concentrate efforts on moving up a gear in its policy response. This involves applying proven decarbonisation solutions more quickly.
The Paris target of 1.5 degrees was undoubtedly ambitious, though a growing body of scientists think it is not realistic any more. A safer bet would be to prepare for a world that is at least 2 degrees warmer, they suggest. Others contend the more demanding target must still be the focus. On balance, 1.5 degrees still matters though the timeframe for action narrows.