The enormous public and political attention focused on the RTÉ controversy has distracted attention from the end of the term at Leinster House, where the Dáil rose on Thursday for its annual summer recess. Government politicians were grateful in recent weeks that the spotlight fell elsewhere for once. But they need not fear; it will return to them before long. For now, however – although the work of politicians and of government continues despite the Dáil’s absence – politicians can savour the prospect of a quiet few weeks in August. It might be their last for a while; this time next year, it is likely that they will be on high alert for a general election, widely expected either in the autumn of next year or early 2025.
This Government is now well past the halfway mark in its term of office, and the attention of ministers and mandarins will soon turn from what they would like to achieve before the next election to what can realistically be delivered. In certain crucial areas – housing, healthcare, childcare, climate action, transport and improving public service – judgments will be needed about what to prioritise. After all, if everything is a priority, nothing is a priority. And any government has finite amounts of bandwidth to get things done. Ministers who want to leave a mark will spend some of the next few weeks figuring out what is doable, and what is not; what is important, what is not. They should then have a clear-eyed focus on that for the rest of their term.
Also trundling away in the background in the coming weeks will be the early phases of the Budget process. Minister for Finance Michael McGrath and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe have set the parameters in last week’s Summer Economic Statement, but how those global targets relate to individual departments has yet to be worked out.
Despite the hefty spending increases of over 6 per cent in Government expenditure that are planned, the effect of inflation and the growing cost of demographic changes will mean that individual settlements are going to be a lot tighter than some people expect. Some of the pressure will be eased by one-off measures in the Budget, but not all of it. Here too the Government and its ministers will be forced to collectively and individually prioritise.
It will be a busy autumn. The budget aside, the Government will be faced with talks on a new public sector pay deal, with trade unions – one eye on the electoral timetable, the other on those bulging budget surpluses – seeking to exert maximum pressure on the Coalition. Northern Ireland, climate action, the continuing fallout – not least in catering for refugees – from the war in Ukraine will all demand attention. And RTÉ's crisis will continue to demand political energy.
It is a hefty and complex in-tray.