Ten weeks into Ukraine’s ambitious summer counteroffensive, and heavy losses and slow gains across the 950km front line have inevitably raised troubling questions. In the US, there is disappointment, particularly over the push southwards to reach the Sea of Azov, aiming to cut Russia’s land bridge in southern Ukraine to Crimea. It comes just weeks before a ¤40 billion package of US funding is set to expire, requiring Joe Biden to secure congressional approval for more aid.
It is feared Ukraine will struggle to recapture significant territory before muddy ground hinders manoeuvres or its forces run out of combat power; it is not the short, sharp, hoped-for gains but a war of attrition that may last well into next year. The total number of Ukrainian and Russian troops killed or wounded since the war began 18 months ago is nearing 500,000, US officials say.
Reports from the front suggest, however, that the Ukrainian army is in a better shape now than six months ago – its ability to move from defence to offence has been bolstered by troops trained abroad and western weapons. Longer-range artillery and, controversially, cluster munitions recently provided by the US, have been proving effective in destroying concentrations of Russian troops, armour and artillery systems.
To a small extent the offensive has been assisted by Irish Army training of demining teams, vital to clearing the way for mass attacks across heavily-mined ground. They are also providing training in basic lethal military skills such as rifle use and tactics which the Government argues are required for Ukraine to defend itself, thus not breaching Ireland’s military neutrality.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskiy continues to call on the west to offer heavy weaponry, warning the counteroffensive’s progress will remain slow without more long-range fire and air power. To that end, on Friday the US approved requests by Denmark and the Netherlands to export American-made F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine, a significant upgrade of Kyiv’s military capabilities. Sweden is also under pressure to follow suit.