Thousands of young people are due to take their next step on their career path this afternoon when they receive their college offers. It will a joyous moment for many. Based on last year’s trends, it is likely that about half of applicants will get their first choice, while about 80 per cent will get one of their top three preferences. It is a fitting reward for a cohort of students who have worked hard and experienced significant disruption to their education during the Covid pandemic.
There are difficult days ahead in Tipperary, meanwhile, where the funerals of four young people killed last week are due to take place. Three of them had been due to celebrate receiving their results. Their aspirations, and those of their parents, have been dashed in the most cruel and devastating manner.
The class of 2023, as in recent years, received significantly inflated grades. It followed a direction from Minister for Education Norma Foley that this year’s results should be no lower than last year’s. Her reasoning was that students should not be disadvantaged against those who received high grades during Covid in the hunt for college places.
It is a delicate balancing act. A sharp return to normality would disadvantage many of this year’s students. However, maintaining high grades carries its own set of problems.
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For one, it raises the likelihood of universities being forced to use random selection to choose between candidates in high-points courses. This is due to the bunching of candidates on top grades. The fact that random selection has been used for some courses with an entry requirement of 625 points – the maximum allowed – is especially cruel.
It also impacts unfairly on students from Northern Ireland, where grades are returning to pre-pandemic norms. This has real consequences for student mobility on both sides of the Border, which is supposed to be a key consideration of the Taoiseach’s Shared Island initiative.
Finally, there is also a risk that some students with inflated grades have a distorted sense of their own ability. Universities have warned that some will struggle and fail to complete their courses as a result. There are already signs that dropout rates are climbing.
Foley has been non-committal on whether grades will begin to return back to normal. There are enough warning signs to provide a compelling case to do so. Grades need to hold their value both for universities and for employers.
The pattern of Irish students’ results is increasingly out of line with the rest of Europe. If they remain so, it is inevitable the integrity of Leaving Cert qualifications will be in question. The process of deflating grades may not be popular, but it is necessary.