The headline-grabbing moment in European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen’s state of the union speech in Strasbourg yesterday was undoubtedly the announcement of a commission inquiry into China’s subsidisation and “distorting” of competition in the giant electric cars market. In launching the EU’s largest trade investigation ever, von der Leyen made clear she did not want a repeat of China’s capture of the huge photovoltaic cell market back in 2012. The move epitomises the EU’s distinctive China policy characterised by engagement and competition, but not a race to the bottom – “derisking not decoupling”.
The annual set-piece, an accounting of the commission’s work and a look forward to the last year of its term, was many things. One seemed to be a job application for von der Leyen herself, whose own term also ends. Who better to keep up the momentum than the incumbent, she implied.
There was also a clear attempt, probably the most coherent in years, to give the EU a visionary rationale beyond the technical organisation of markets, to provide young citizens a purpose rooted in common challenges that can only be confronted collectively. “This is Europe’s moment to answer the call of history,” she argued.
From climate change – “the reality of a boiling planet” – to defending Ukraine, to the managing of migration and the regulating of the digital revolution in social media and AI, the EU, von der Leyen insisted, was responding independently and leading from the front by example, willing to act alone. The speech was notable for not mentioning the US or the UK, the latter a measure of how Brussels, if not London, has moved on from Brexit.
It was a rosy perspective, perhaps, on what she admitted would be a hard road. But one the union has to be prepared for. Von der Leyen announced several welcome, ambitious initiatives. Among them is a new dialogue on farming’s future; a renewal of social dialogue between unions and employers; and the possibility of a forum to bring together scientists, industry and experts to “mitigate the risk of extinction” from artificial intelligence. She also signalled a European wind power package, a study on the challenges of enlargement and a new approach to Africa.
Von der Leyen’s main message was, however, on the moral imperative of politically committing to the next round of enlargement, primarily membership for Ukraine. “The future of Ukraine is in our Union. We will be at Ukraine’s side … for as long as it takes,” she said. The enlargement agenda includes Serbia, the Western Balkans and Moldova. That will require a profound reimagining of internal decision-making and budgets and, if necessary, the feared process of treaty reform.
Whether the member states will embrace that worthy ambition is most uncertain.