When Polish voters go to the polls on Sunday to elect a new parliament, the rest of Europe will also be watching on anxiously. The hotly-contested and vicious electoral battle, part personal, part deeply ideological, between Jaroslav Kaczynski, Poland’s de facto leader who serves as deputy prime minister but is his Law and Justice (PiS) party’s most senior figure, and former European Council President Donald Tusk, may represent a major turning point.
It is seen by many as the denouement of Poland’s transition to democracy, a choice after decades of agonising over the path for Poland between the liberal European mainstream and an inward-looking, authoritarian, and socially conservative Catholicism.
Kaczynski’s PiS is now seeking a third consecutive term, while the demonised Tusk and Civic Platform are fighting for his return to the prime-ministership he once held. PiS presents itself as the defender of Polish sovereignty and values, with Kaczynski claiming Tusk has worked as an agent for Berlin, Brussels and even Moscow against Warsaw’s interests.
Polls put Civic Platform at about 30 per cent, with PiS at 35 per cent. A majority for either is near impossible with government formation dependent on now-unpredictable coalitions with minor parties, who need to pass voting thresholds to be represented in parliament.
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The election will have ramifications across Europe. A PiS victory would be an important boost for populism and Euroscepticism ahead of next year’s European Parliament elections. A defeat for PiS can contribute positively to a rebalancing within the EU, weakening the powerfully destabilising role of Hungary’s Viktor Orban, recently strengthened by the victory of Roberto Fico in Slovakia and earlier by Giorgia Meloni in Italy.
Many opposition politicians claim that PiS’s judicial fight with Brussels over the rule of law is the prelude to a post-election plan to leave the EU. Tusk has warned that “the slippery words” of PiS could lead to “Polexit”. PiS has, however, avoided putting EU membership to the referendums running simultaneously to the election – on fighting illegal migration, tightening borders, keeping the retirement age, and not selling state assets to foreigners. Although resentment of Brussels is strong, polls suggest Polexit is not a popular option, not least because Poland would lose access to many millions of euros in cash support.
Meanwhile Warsaw’s relationship with Kyiv has also recently soured amid a dispute over grain exports from Ukraine that has also raised concerns about the PiS’s and Poland’s longer-term commitment to help Ukraine join the EU. There have also been threats by Warsaw to stop delivering weapons and end benefits for refugees. Kyiv would be delighted to see the back of Kaczynski.