The €2.5 billion scheme to remediate fire safety and other defects in apartments and duplexes built during the “Celtic Tiger” is now unlikely to be operational before late 2024, according to Minister for Housing Darragh O’Brien.
The expectation was that the legislation underpinning the scheme – which was announced in January – would be passed by the Oireachtas this year, although no firm date was given for the scheme to commence operation.
Given that a general election is also due in late 2024, it is tempting to conclude that some ulterior motive lies behind the “delay”. Namely that cheques would arrive through voters’ letter boxes as they were considering how to cast their ballot.
A cursory examination of the task involved in establishing the scheme makes even a late 2024 start date look optimistic. O’Brien and his colleagues effectively wrote a blank cheque on behalf of the taxpayer. They had no clear idea of either the scope or the cost of the scheme. The number of homes affected was put at somewhere between 62,500 and 100,000 – a margin of error of almost 50 per cent. The cost per home was estimated at €25,000 per unit, putting the potential bill at €2.5 billion.
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There was, and is, scant detail about how the scheme would operate. One thing was made clear: that the scheme would be retrospective. People who have repaired their properties out of their own pocket would be reimbursed. Unsurprisingly, the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform and the Department of Finance were against this measure, deeming it unnecessary and setting a dangerous precedent.
Retrospection was, like the scheme itself, politically expedient and fiscally imprudent. The Government is now grappling with how to deliver on its headline-grabbing promise without exposing the exchequer to an unquantifiable liability. To say they have their work cut out for them is an understatement.
The scheme is to be operated by the Housing Authority. Little of substance can happen until the legislation governing the scheme is published and enacted by the Oireachtas. Getting that done by next June is possible, with a fair political wind behind it. Having the scheme up and running and writing cheques by the end of the year seems like a stretch. Even if it did get going, some estimate that it could take up to 10 years to rectify the problems.
None of this is any comfort to the thousands living in substandard and dangerous housing built between 1991 and 2013.
The Minister said in July that “interim measures” would be announced in the autumn. He is running out of time to make good on that promise as well.