In the 235 years since the founding of the American presidency, 45 men have occupied the office. This week Donald Trump became the first of them to have been convicted of a crime. Thursday’s verdict in a Manhattan courtroom is another unprecedented and disturbing landmark in the former – and possibly future – president’s turbulent and controversial political career.
Despite the fact that he is now a convicted felon, Trump is not barred from running for the White House. From the outset of the trial, he and his political allies have attacked the entire process as the product of a grand conspiracy. There is no doubt that politics played a part in Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg’s decision to bring charges of falsifying documents to cover up the payment of money during Trump’s 2016 presidential election in order to hush up a sexual encounter .
But the fact remains that Trump was convicted by a jury of his fellow Americans on the basis of the evidence presented to them. That has not stopped Republican attempts to weaponise the verdict in the service of a presidential election campaign based on falsehoods, grievance and a thirst for vengeance. It still remains unclear how successful that strategy will be; Republicans and Democrats alike will await the next round of opinion polls with particular interest to see whether Trump’s lead over Joe Biden has been affected in any way. Given the entrenchment and polarisation of contemporary American politics, that seems unlikely.
Some still argue over whether Trump is a symptom or a cause of his country’s political division and dysfunction. The truth is he is both. The first president to be impeached twice, the first to allege despite clear and overwhelming evidence to the contrary that he had won an election, the first to summon a mob that violently invaded the Capitol and halted the proceedings of Congress, he is certainly a unique figure in the history of the presidency. The US has seen such leaders before, but none have risen to the same political heights. He continues to dominate his own party as well as the broader political landscape, and is currently well positioned to perform a feat achieved only once before in American history by serving two non-consecutive terms.
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Judge Juan Merchan will deliver his sentence on July 11th, just four days before the Republican national convention begins in Milwaukee in the key swing state of Wisconsin. Legal analysts believe a prison sentence is unlikely in what is the least grave of the criminal charges pending against Trump. The other cases will not now proceed before the election takes place. Whether they are heard at all may now depend on the decision of the American people when they cast their votes in this most consequential of elections.