The latest data showing an increase in the number of tenancies registered in Ireland from 213,177 in mid-2023 to 230,006 in the middle of this year ran against the common belief that private landlords are leaving the market. The figures, from the Residential Tenancies Board (RTB) only go back one year, as previous ones are not comparable due to a data revamp. Yet they are nonetheless interesting.
The figures add some more information to a clouded situation. The latest census counted a higher level of rental properties than had previously been recorded, a gap due in part to informal arrangements within families which do not need to be registered. The indications also are that many landlords have been operating illegally and not registering with the RTB. Tighter policing in this area may have affected the latest figures, so it will be interesting to see further trends in this new RTB series.
From a policy point of view, there are a number of interesting issues. One is the increased prevalence of larger landlords, which may in part explain the gap between the perception that smaller landlords are leaving the market and the increased number of tenancies.
An important issue is that many of the bigger players operate at the higher, more expensive part of the market. Some larger operators may also be buying up rental properties put on sale by smaller operators. Understanding these trends is important in deciding future policy such as that on rental pressure zones.
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Whatever the figures show, however, it is clear that the rental market remains in crisis, with costs heading relentlessly higher and a shortage of affordable homes to rent. The balance between supply and demand in the market is sending the cost of new tenancies ever higher. Government plans to intervene through the provision of cost rental units is welcome, but progress is slow and often delayed by the peculiarities of the Irish planning system. Despite the RTB figures showing significant number of properties to rent, the numbers actually available on property websites are at historically low levels. More information is needed here on what exactly is going on.
The Commission on Housing had a range of policy proposals on rental which are worth considering, not least a much more ambitious programme of Government investment in cost rental housing, which would be available at well below market rents. It also proposed a change in the rent pressure zone regime in an attempt to promote a more stable market.
At the heart of this is the need for policy to realise that rental is not only an important stepping stone into the property market, but also a valid and for some appropriate choice in the longer term. While paying lip-service to this, Irish political debate has yet to take it on board.