Amidst all the social media noise, a key issue in the US presidential election remains the economy and specifically the financial position of households. In the wake of the cost-of-living crisis many feel worse off. President Joe Biden points to relatively strong top-line economic figures, but households say they are not feeling it.
Up to recently, at least, this has appeared to play to the advantage of former president Donald Trump. A key part of his message has long been the economic pressures on middle-income families, which he blames in part on other countries taking advantage of the US.
Both sides have been trying to define the economic battleground in recent days. In a speech on Friday, Kamala Harris took aim at profiteering businesses – particularly in groceries and drug prescriptions – and promised action to address this. She also committed to introducing financial supports for first-time housebuyers and for families and to increase house building.
Trump has also promised financial and tax benefits for key groups, such as older people and the elimination of income tax on tips, a proposal also taken up by Harris. Trump’s running mate JD Vance this weekend strongly criticised the administration’s record on inflation and prices. Trump also promises to impose tariffs on imports into the US, particularly from China but also elsewhere.
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Both sides face unanswered questions about the affordability of their policies in the light of America’s strained public finances. Linked to this will be the challenge of getting agreement from Congress, whatever its shape after November, to new policy measures.
And while Trump might use presidential powers to push ahead with his tariff plan, rather than cutting prices as he promises, it would actually increase them as the cost is passed on to consumers. Harris is correct to dub this a “Trump tax”.
The power of politicians to affect the cost of living is limited, as is their ability to compensate people. But that never stops them from over-promising during election campaigns. Harris has certainly sharpened up Democratic policies on the issue, moving away from the Biden approach which in part blamed the media for not giving his administration credit for the recovery in growth and jobs.
These themes are, of course, central to politics in many countries, including Ireland, particularly after the cost-of-living crisis. This has deepened concerns about who gets the benefits of economic growth, which have been central to the rise of populism. The same issues of prices, affordability, the lack of housing and the economic future for households will be central in the Irish general election, too. As in America, voters need to take a sceptical view of the promises of politicians and interrogate them carefully.