TDs return to Leinster House today for the beginning of the autumn political term, with many expecting it to be the last of the 33rd Dáil. The leaders of the Government parties continue to insist that the general election will not be held until next year. But many of their TDs and Ministers, along with Opposition parties and political observers, expect that when the Coalition leaders sit down to discuss this subject – their rather improbable contention is that no discussion on the topic has yet been had – they might change their position. Either way, the spectre of an election will be ever-present for politics in the coming weeks.
The early part of the term will be dominated by the Budget, to be delivered by Minister for Finance Jack Chambers (his first) and Minister for Public Expenditure Paschal Donohoe (not his first) in less than two weeks’ time, on October 1st. With an election soon and the Government finances in rude good health, a large giveaway in the Coaliton’s last Budget was always inevitable. It is important, though, that the Budget Ministers do not yield to too many of their colleagues’ demands in the coming weeks.
All things considered, a generous Budget would be understandable; a reckless one would be unforgiveable. That applies equally to any plans the Coalition might be tempted to set out for the Apple tax revenues, though actual decisions on the latter will surely be a matter for this Government’s successor.
Though the focus of many TDs will inevitably be on electoral competition in their constituencies, there are important legislative priorities for the Government as well. The finance bill and the social welfare bill to give effect to the Budget measures will be essential. The planning bill, considered vital by the Government to its ambitions to speed up the provision of housing by minimising delays in the planning system, is due to pass into law by the middle of next month. The defamation bill and the hate crime/hate speech bill are other important pieces of legislation that are due to come or come back before the Dáil, though it is by no means certain that either will reach a conclusion.
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As was probably inevitable, recent days and weeks have seen signs of squabbling breaking out between the Coalition partners, even if none have approached a threshold of seriousness that might threaten the Government’s future. The reality is that tensions are likely to increase as the parties face the reality that they will soon be competing for votes, a competition likely to be more intense between the two largest parties.
Whatever their political needs, the leaders of those parties, and especially the Taoiseach, have a responsibility to manage the ending of this Government in a way that prioritises the national interest.