The visit of Simon Harris to the White House to mark 100 years of Irish-American diplomatic relations underlines Ireland’s ongoing access at the highest level in Washington. Based historically on the Irish diaspora, the flood of American investment into Ireland in recent years has made the relationship economically important for both sides.
There is a theory in international relations that the soft power wielded by a small country is directly proportionate to its influence in Washington. By this metric, Ireland scores highly.
It is a relationship that has been very beneficial. The Belfast Agreement would not have happened without the support of the Clinton administration. Similar levels of US engagement would be crucial in planning for a united Ireland, if at some stage in the future a majority of people on this island vote for unification.
However, Joe Biden might be the last US president so well disposed to Ireland, even if a number of senior politicians in Congress do retain a strong interest in the country and have played a role in promoting the events planned for this week, now cut back due to the hurricane in Florida.
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There are signs of change. The last big wave of emigration from Ireland to the US was over 30 years ago. Moreover, the US is becoming much more diverse and Irish America is becoming much less coherent and influential.
For the first time in a long time, none of the four candidates on the Democrat and Republican tickets have any ostensible ties to this country. Kamala Harris is indeed descended from a 17th century slave owner from Co Antrim, but it is unlikely the Government will be using that tie as an intro should she prevail in November’s election.
Meanwhile, a victory by Donald Trump would raise new questions. He is deeply hostile to the EU and more broadly the international order that emerged over the second half of the last century. If he wins in November, his presidency would strain international relations and endanger the world economy. And this could pose significant threats to Ireland and lead to an unpredictable turn in the Irish-American relationship.
Trump, for example, has said that he would seek to attract American investment back to the US and that other countries would pay a price.
What this would mean in practice is, of course unclear. And Trump’s bellicose stance towards China would raise questions for Ireland about its relations with Beijing and attracting Chinese investment. Indeed, whoever wins in November, this is likely to be an issue for Dublin.
The symbolic handing over of the shamrock may continue each March, but there is work to be done in maintaining Ireland’s real influence. The traditional calling card may not have the same power in future.