International political upheaval is making the climate crisis much harder to address. With the return of Donald Trump to the White House the task has become even more arduous. Geopolitics is in the throes of its most turbulent phase for decades as mistrust and conflict undermine multilateralism, even where it is in the collective interest of all parties to co-operate.
That is the backdrop to Cop29, the annual UN climate negotiations getting underway in Azerbaijan. It begins a critical year when countries are due to step up commitments under the 2015 Paris Agreement. What was predicted by science is already evident. Surging emissions and temperatures have not been reigned in. Extreme weather events come with terrible unpredictability because of a destabilised climate, while exceeding vital planetary boundaries on nature and water is seriously increasing risks.
The geopolitical circumstances probably mean, 10 years on, that achieving the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below a 1.5-degree threshold will be impossible. Yet, countries must push on together, even if the UN process is flawed and not helped by being hosted by autocratic petrostates in recent years. They have done so against the odds in past.
They should be reassured by a global clean energy revolution that is unstoppable despite what Trump may attempt, but also realise that decarbonisation will not happen without addressing barriers undermining climate co-operation.
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The first immediate problem is among major emitting countries, who are suspicious of competitors and concerned about supply-chain security. China has raced ahead and become the dominant renewables player globally, heightening economic and political strains and eroding the trust that is essential to trade. The second is wealthy countries’ failure to deliver funding to enable developing countries to shift away from fossil fuels.
Spill-over tensions arising from wars in the Ukraine and Middle East are also a threat. But with ambition and focus some wins can be fashioned and built upon leading up to the more important Cop30 in Brazil next year. A good outcome would involve agreeing a climate finance goal – moving the dial on supports for developing countries from billions towards trillions; putting tangible shape on an adaptation package to ensure climate resilience in Africa and the Global South; and clarity on Article 6 of the Paris pact to ensure meaningful carbon trading at scale.
Disagreement over who should pay – and how much – risks turning the Cop into a failure. With imagination and collaboration, it is possible to put a framework in place to expand the pot beyond public finances and to bring forward important reforms in the international financial system. Whether a fractured world can agree, however, remains in question.