It's been an interesting and dramatic election and the quality of the party campaigns has been mixed, writes Noel Whelan.
The Green Party went into this election with the wind at their back but have been becalmed in the last three weeks. The party's issues, such as global warming and sustainable energy, which featured so prominently in public debate in the months before the election, have been submerged in the campaign.
The Green Party does deserve credit for their party political broadcast. It was the best political marketing done in this country since Eoghan Harris's work for Mary Robinson in the 1990 presidential election campaign. The concept, showing children speaking about their concerns and asking viewers to vote on their behalf, was quite brilliant. Marketing professionals might take issue with elements of the execution; for example, some of the language used was not the stuff which normally comes out of the mouths of babes. Nonetheless, it was a dramatic broadcast and they lucked out with it being scheduled for the night of the leaders' debate.
Notwithstanding the national polls, particular opportunities in Galway West and Wicklow still mean that the Green Party is likely to gain extra seats. They may also do sufficiently well in a handful of other constituencies to be in contention for later seats. If next weekend you see a Green candidate sitting on two-thirds or three-quarters of a quota on the first count, then remember that the Green Party is a magnet for transfers.
Sinn Féin's approach to the election has been almost precisely the same as in 2002. They have stayed vague on policy in their national campaign and focused their considerable resources - both financial and human - in their key target constituencies. They again waited until the last week of the campaign before launching their full manifesto. Their marketing has also again majored on the strong Adams brand. However, Adams's lack of affinity for and understanding of political issues in the Republic, which has always been apparent to those who observe politics closely, was exposed to a much wider audience in his debate with the other leaders of the smaller parties on Wednesday night. The one difference this time has been Sinn Féin positioning itself as ready for government. This is why they have jettisoned the proposal for tax increases, which was their published policy just six months ago.
For the Progressive Democrats, none of their current seats can now be regarded as safe. The fact that Mary Harney's constituency has an additional seat this time round probably means she will hold on. Michael McDowell may also have saved his seat in Wednesday night's debate. His performance will have again irritated those whom he irritates but it would also have buoyed up his supporters. More importantly, it will have reminded some floating voters that his tough anti-Sinn Féin stance and his anti-left stance might be worth having in the 30th Dáil, if only to liven things up on the Opposition benches.
Labour has executed a very good campaign. In the same way that Michael McDowell provokes the angry man out of the Green Party's John Gormley, he usually provokes the smart alec out of Pat Rabbitte. This explains the one slip Rabbitte made in Wednesday's debate. Apart from that instance, Rabbitte has managed to keep his inner smart alec in check for this campaign. He has come as a leader comfortable in his skin and has been very impressive at communicating a core message of the need for change. The polls are implying that Labour's support is edging upwards slightly, which means that in addition to picking up seats in such places as Meath East, they are in real contention for gains in Wicklow and the three south Dublin constituencies.
Fine Gael's campaign has been brilliantly conceived and has been executed with discipline. A considerable portion of their national advertising and postering campaign, all of their party political broadcasts, every stump speech and much of Kenny's media interviews have been used to repeating a small number of commitments which resonate with voters' desires for change and for improved services. If the packaging of them as a "contract" is a bit cringe-making for an Irish audience, the repetition has worked.
Much of the Fine Gael campaign has also wisely focused on the energy and personality of their leader. In Thursday's debate with Bertie Ahern, Enda Kenny also got the opportunity to reiterate another of Fine Gael's central themes - accountability. However, the debate also focused attention on the lack of funding which the party appears to have provided for some of these core promises. The media have further probed some of these promises, so for at least two or three news cycles Fianna Fáil has taken the initiative.
Apart from that, the Fianna Fáil campaign has been incoherent and at times even shambolic. Once the leaders' debate moved on from the issue of his personal finances, Ahern got comfortable for the first time in this campaign and was back at his best. His performance will have rallied his troops for this last crucial weekend.
In all our most recent general elections there has been a significant swing during the course of the campaign. It was for Dick Spring and Labour in 1992. It was towards Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil in 1997. It was against Noonan and Fine Gael in 2002. Ahern will know that in each of these elections, once the swing took hold it could not be turned around. In fact, in modern Irish elections, the swing usually accelerates in the last week. Fianna Fáil's chances of bucking that trend in the time that remains must be slim. Next weekend is going to be a very, very dramatic one in Irish politics.