With the election campaign past the halfway mark, the contest is still finely balanced, but it appears increasingly unlikely that the current coalition of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats will have the numbers to form their third administration in a row, despite signs of some recovery in support for the main Government party, writes Stephen Collins
The Fine Gael-Labour alliance is still in with a good chance of wresting power from Fianna Fáil in an election for the first time since 1982, but neither party can afford any serious slippage in the crucial third week of the campaign. The highlight in the coming week will be the long-awaited television debate between the alternative taoisigh, Bertie Ahern and Enda Kenny.
After a terrible opening to the campaign, Fianna Fáil has got itself on to an even keel over the past week and morale among party workers has improved considerably. The two highly publicised events featuring the Taoiseach's role in the peace process has helped things but, in any case, there were signs that the party was getting to grips with the nature of the campaign.
The TNS/mrbi poll for The Irish Timesconducted last Tuesday and Wednesday showed Fianna Fáil gaining two points to 36 per cent, but the party is still more than five points below its vote in the last election. It will need to win in or about 40 per cent to get 70 or more seats, and that is a tall order given its persistent poll ratings in the mid-30 per cent range over the past three years.
Fianna Fáil strategists are confident that Bertie Ahern will win the television debate with Enda Kenny and demonstrate by his mastery of detail that there is no contest when it comes to the issue of who would make the best taoiseach. Ahern will certainly be more comfortable when it comes to economic issues but, unless he delivers a knockout blow, there is no guarantee that a "win" in the debate will translate into a surge to Fianna Fáil.
In the 1997 election, the then taoiseach, John Bruton, was widely perceived to have won the debate but he didn't win the election. Even in the throes of a truly awful campaign in 2002, Michael Noonan acquitted himself well in the debate without reaping any dividend. Television debates are as much about who comes across as the most likable as who appears most competent. Kenny has already surprised Fianna Fáil by being much more effective on the campaign trail than it expected and it would be foolish to underestimate him in the television debate.
A problem for Fianna Fáil is that its modest recovery has not been matched by a revival in PD fortunes. The Tánaiste, Michael McDowell, was always going to have a huge battle on his hands to keep his party afloat if the tide was running in favour of Fine Gael. However, he has compounded his problems by the erratic way he has handled the issue of the Taoiseach's personal finances.
By initially backing Ahern when the controversy broke, then threatening to pull out of Government, subsequently modifying that stance and insisting on a statement, and finally coming across as great pals with the Taoiseach at the Arbour Hill commemoration last Wednesday, McDowell has created utter confusion about his position. With the PDs already up against it the effect may be disastrous.
What is really frustrating for the PDs is that they have a real point to make about the issue of accountability in public office. The circumstances in which Ahern accepted substantial cash payments when he was minister for finance and subsequently Fianna Fáil leader in 1993/1994 are truly jaw-dropping. The public is certainly entitled to a full explanation.
The Fianna Fáil line that this is a personal matter, and the media and the public have no right to inquire into it during the campaign, does not stand up. Neither does the stance of the main Opposition parties who seem far more concerned about keeping up their poll ratings than they are about insisting on high standards in public office. The PDs made a stab at being the only party to insist on accountability, but McDowell seems to have botched the effort so completely that they will get no credit for it.
Despite signs of a Fianna Fáil recovery, the alternative government of Fine Gael and Labour is still in a with a good chance of winning power. Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte could scarcely have believed six months ago that Fine Gael and Labour combined would go into the final stages of the campaign with a five-point lead over Fianna Fáil and a three-point lead over the outgoing Government.
They are now in a good position to do what very few pundits gave them a chance of doing. The Irish Times poll is encouraging on a number of fronts. Although Fine Gael has slipped back to 28 per cent, Labour has moved up to 13 per cent and the balance between the two parties is much better in terms of making the required seat gains.
The solid showing by Fine Gael and Labour has put the Greens under pressure. It appears that the party's vote is being squeezed as people confront the issue of whether they want Fianna Fáil to remain in office or be replaced by the alternative alliance. Meanwhile, the solid showing by Sinn Féin may act as a drag on the Fianna Fáil vote and prevent it from getting close to the 40 per cent mark.
The surge in the satisfaction rating for Enda Kenny shows that he is having a really successful campaign and is finally imprinting himself on the minds of the voters as a politician of substance. Added to that, voters have indicated a preference for a Fine Gael-led coalition over a Fianna Fáil-PD one. More significantly, a majority has expressed the belief for the first time in a TNS/mrbi poll that the Fine Gael-Labour alliance will actually win.
The problem the alternative government has had over the past three years is that although a big proportion of the electorate wanted Fianna Fáil out, a clear majority did not believe it could happen. By changing that perception the alternative alliance has cleared one important hurdle.
However, the alternative still has a job to do convincing the voters it can provide competent government. The nod and wink approach to the nurses' dispute coming from Kenny and Rabbitte does not inspire confidence that they have the mettle to take the tough decisions required to run the country in the wider national interest.
One of the reasons why a Fine Gael-Labour government has never won re-election in the history of the State is that it has generally taken office after raising expectations beyond what can be delivered. By creating the impression that they can solve the nurses' dispute to the satisfaction of the nurses without generating knock-on claims across the public service, they have stored up huge problems for themselves in the event that they do manage to win.
The finding in the poll that exactly half of the voters regard Ahern's finances as a serious issue in the campaign, whereas 43 per cent do not see it in that light, casts an interesting light on the potential of the alternative governments to gain support in the coming week. The detailed figures show that a substantial majority of Fianna Fáil voters do not regard it as a serious issue, but an even bigger majority of those who support all the other parties, except the Greens, do regard it as such.
It appears that the issue has polarised the electorate into two camps: those who support Fianna Fáil and those who do not. It may well have an important influence on the election outcome by making it more difficult for Fianna Fáil to attract transfers and, conversely, by encouraging transfers between the Opposition parties.
One of the facts about past elections that Fianna Fáil strategists have paid very close attention to is that on 39 per cent of the vote in 1992 the party won 68 seats under Albert Reynolds. In 1997 it got 77 under Bertie Ahern on precisely the same first preference share. One of the reasons for the seat bonus in 1997 was that the party attracted more transfers. If they dry up this time then Fianna Fáil could dip under 70 seats even if it comes close to 40 per cent of the vote.
The issue of transfers is equally important for the chances of the alternative alliance. The reason the Fine Gael disaster of 2002 was so terrible was that the party not alone did not get a seat bonus, but actually got fewer seats than its first preference share of the vote. This ran against the usual pattern of Irish elections. For instance in 1997 Fine Gael got a bonus of seven seats on just under 28 per cent of the vote and even on a poor showing of 24.5 per cent in 1992 it got a seat bonus of four.
If Fine Gael can actually win the 28 per cent it obtained in this week's Irish Times poll, then it should win more than 50 seats with a reasonable seat bonus and be in a great position to get into government. Conversely if Fianna Fáil can lift its vote by a few more percentage points it will be hard to dislodge. It is still all there to play for.