THE FULL extent of the disaster that befell Fianna Fáil in last February’s general election has yet to be acknowledged by some of its members. It is as if time has stopped for them and they believe that a temporary aberation by voters will quickly be reversed. The situation has made life extremely difficult for party leader Micheal Martin who wishes, at all costs, to avoid a second public humiliation by way of a lost presidential election contest.
Mr Martin has not handled the situation well. His initial strategy – to delay a decision on nominating a party candidate until it was all but impossible to conduct an effective campaign – was abandoned when Gay Byrne entered the frame. By publicly endorsing Mr Byrne as an Independent candidate, Mr Martin not only dismayed members of a party committee who had been chosen to decide the issue but he also infuriated parliamentary party members who were not consulted. Mr Byrne’s withdrawal brought a shuddering reversion to the original strategy and eventually caused would-be party candidate Brian Crowley to pull out. The episode underlines criticisms made of Mr Martin during the leadership race, that he is a man who commissions reports but is reluctant to commit himself on controversial issues.
Surveys concerning the extent of public support for named Fianna Fáil candidates were certainly conducted. But the results were not encouraging. Rather than devote scarce financial resources and political energy to a lost cause, it is clear that Mr Martin decided not to field a party candidate and procrastinated in order to eat up possible campaigning time.
It was a perfectly logical position. But it upset would-be contenders and those who believed that Fianna Fáil remained a potent force and should, no matter what the outcome, contest the election. Fianna Fáil’s discipline has been affected by its disastrous general election performance. A party cannot lose 24 per cent of its support base and two-thirds of its TDs without suffering major trauma. Some months ago, Mr Martin’s efforts to revitalise the party by nominating chosen individuals in the Seanad elections were publicly and successfully rebuffed by sitting members and party councillors. Since then, his pre-election pledge that former ministers would be required to waive all severance payments in a new Dáil has been ignored by a number of colleagues. Notwithstanding public rejection and the financial crisis, it is “politics as usual” for some.
Mr Martin is under pressure; discipline is patchy and some of those who opposed his leadership are stirring things up. Despite that, there is no suggestion of an impending “heave”.
The majority of members are slowly and reluctantly getting to grips with a new political reality and looking to the local elections of 2014 as their next serious test. When the parliamentary party meets next month, Mr Martin will have to present a convincing plan for rejuvenation; identify points of Government weakness and prepare to meet an expected challenge from Sinn Féin.