INSIDE POLITICS:Fine Gael was so used to defeat its members were psychologically prepared for a long, uphill battle, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE CHARMED life of the Coalition has continued through the summer. As Ministers reassembled on Tuesday after the August break they could look back on a period of cloudless political skies, in stark contrast to the gloomy weather.
For Fianna Fáil, though, it was gloom all around. The botched handling of the decision about whether or not to run a candidate in the presidential election added to the misery of a party that is now fighting for its very existence.
Micheál Martin is finding out the sorry truth that being leader of the Opposition is the toughest job in politics and, given the trauma experienced by Fianna Fáil over the past year, his job is far tougher than that faced by any of his predecessors.
Yet he can take a glimmer of hope from the experience of Enda Kenny in the position. For almost 10 years Kenny was the butt of media criticism and rarely got an even break while Bertie Ahern was for long indulged with soft-focus coverage that, in hindsight, looks embarrassing.
In his first six months in office Kenny has achieved a stature that eluded him in opposition and the pundits who delighted in pouring scorn on him are vying with each other to heap praise on his achievements. His new-found popularity will be tested in the months ahead but he is in a much stronger position to withstand the pressure having got off on the right foot in office.
The task facing Martin in Opposition is much more difficult than that which faced Kenny when he took over as leader of Fine Gael in the summer of 2002 but there are some important lessons the Fianna Fáil leader can take.
The first is that he needs a clear analysis of the problem and an action plan to deal with it. Muddling along hoping for the best is a recipe for disaster as the manoeuvring over the presidential election candidate showed.
Kenny was faced with a decision about whether to nominate a candidate to challenge Mary McAleese at the end of her first term in 2004 and he decided early in that year not to contest an election but to back her for another term instead. He was widely criticised in the media and by some in his party for doing so but it was clearly the correct decision for the party and the country.
By avoiding a presidential election he was bound to lose, Kenny was able to focus attention and resources on the local and European elections of 2004 both of which produced good results for Fine Gael and marked the first step on the road to power.
Martin ultimately made the right decision not to contest the presidential election this time. He had a more difficult choice to make than Kenny in 2004 because a contest is going to take place one way or another but he let things drift for too long and the Gay Byrne fiasco didn’t do much for his authority.
The essential difficulty for Martin, as illustrated by the presidential election fiasco, is that so many people inside and outside Fianna Fáil are having difficulty in coming to terms with the sheer scale of the change that has taken place in Irish politics.
The party was so dominant for so long that it is still hard to comprehend that Fianna Fáil now has just 19 TDs in the Dáil. It does not have a single TD in the Dublin area and there are many counties, formerly traditional heartlands such as Kerry, Tipperary and Meath, where it is also without a TD. Out of 43 constituencies in the country, it is now represented in just 17.
The implications for recovery are huge. For instance in Dún Laoghaire, Fianna Fáil now has no TD, no Senator and just one county councillor. The organisation appears to have evaporated and there are no longer clinics or any visible party presence in the area.
A cold analysis of the scale of the problem is essential if there is to be any chance of recovery. One of Kenny’s key decisions in 2002 was to appoint Frank Flannery to head an expert group which reported back in a few months on the scale of the problem facing Fine Gael. The report didn’t put a tooth in it and forecast that the party was on the road to extinction unless dramatic changes were made. The shock effect of the report and the blueprint it laid down were vital in the party’s recovery.
The problem facing Fianna Fáil in 2011 is obviously far greater and finding a solution will be more difficult, if it can be achieved at all.
Fine Gael was used to defeat and the party members were psychologically prepared for a long, uphill battle. By contrast Fianna Fáil has been so successful and the scale of the defeat so great that party members may be incapable of fighting back. Many of them are so shell-shocked that they may drift away from politics altogether and the continuing toxic nature of the Fianna Fáil brand could corrode the will to survive.
The first task facing Martin is to ensure that the party survives. Avoiding a drubbing in the presidential election will be help but that is just a small step on the road to recovery. Some people in Fianna Fáil still assume that a recovery will start once the Fine Gael-Labour Coalition makes tough and unpopular budgetary decisions. However, there is no guarantee that Fianna Fáil will be in any fit condition to avail of a downturn in the popularity of the Government if and when that happens.