After the latest twists, Bertie Ahern may need either a majority or a deal with Sinn Féin, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
The first week of the most extraordinary election campaign in living memory has ended with another series of dramatic twists. The upshot is that the Taoiseach will, after all, make a detailed response to the controversy over his financial affairs some time during the campaign.
However, in light of the concerns raised yesterday by the Tánaiste Michael McDowell the prospects of Fianna Fáil returning to government have receded, unless the party comes close to an overall majority or does a deal with Sinn Féin.
The decision to confront the payments issue head-on was made at a meeting between the Taoiseach and three of his key Ministers, Brian Cowen, Dermot Ahern and Micheál Martin, at the Fianna Fáil election headquarters at Treasury Buildings in Dublin early yesterday afternoon.
It came after a weekend of chaos in the junior Government party, the Progressive Democrats, which saw it on the verge of pulling out of coalition at one stage, but ultimately deciding to instead insist on a statement from the Taoiseach.
The three Fianna Fáil Ministers consulted by the Taoiseach later gave a press conference at which Cowen announced the Taoiseach's decision to confront the issue. He maintained that in recent weeks there has been a deliberate attempt to damage the Taoiseach through the selective and ongoing leaking of information which had been given to the Mahon tribunal.
The announcement that the Taoiseach would give a full account of his financial affairs came only hours after Tánaiste Michael McDowell insisted that the Taoiseach must make a comprehensive statement about his personal finances.
"It now appears that the tribunal has been given a radically different account of the transactions which were the subject of public controversy last autumn from that which was given to me by the Taoiseach then," said McDowell.
In other words, according to the PD leader, the Mahon tribunal is in possession of a very different account of the transactions surrounding the house now owned by Bertie Ahern than that given to him last October.
At that stage McDowell decided to stay in Government with Fianna Fáil on the basis of assurances from Ahern which he now clearly no longer believes.
McDowell must regret the decision he made in the difficult circumstances of last October to underwrite Ahern. Pulling out of Government at that stage would have been very difficult for the party, but hardly any more difficult that the options it faces now.
Given the nearness of the elections, the PDs probably made the right choice yesterday to put it up to the Taoiseach rather than pull out of Government with just a few weeks of its life to run.
The Taoiseach's decision to make a statement was a direct response to McDowell's demand and it was noticeable that at the press conference the three Ministers made conciliatory remarks about the Tánaiste and the PDs.
More important, though, than meeting McDowell's demand, by yesterday it had become an imperative for the Taoiseach to do something to reassure the public. Although Ministers are adamant that the issue is not coming up as a negative on the doorsteps, it is having a huge impact on the direction of the campaign.
Whatever happens, yesterday's events have compounded the difficulties facing Ahern in leading Fianna Fáil back into government. Unless the Taoiseach can come up with a statement that dispels all of the PDs' concerns, it is hard to conceive of any circumstances in which they will vote for Ahern as Taoiseach when the 30th Dáil meets on June 14th.
If that is the position of the PDs, the same imperative will apply with even more force to Labour. Pat Rabbitte has never wanted to be in a position where he might be forced into doing a coalition deal with Fianna Fáil. He will now have no difficulty justifying a decision not to do such a deal, whatever the outcome of the election.
It is equally difficult to see how the Greens could support Ahern, no matter what inducements were offered to the party, given that the party has always laid so much stress on the issue of standards in public life.
Green Party leader Trevor Sargent said that as a result of the Tánaiste's allegation of the Taoiseach's economy with the truth, Bertie Ahern is now politically a dead man walking.
He added that he could not see any other party "accepting the moral authority which is expected of a Taoiseach with Bertie Ahern in that office".
The bottom line in all of this is that Ahern can be sure of leading his party back into government only if it comes close to an overall majority and is in a position to form a minority government with the support of Independents.
It appears highly unlikely at this stage in the campaign that Fianna Fáil will have the numbers to form such a minority government. That leaves the option of a deal with Sinn Féin. However, that would require Sinn Féin doing well enough to have the required number of TDs to re-elect Ahern as Taoiseach.
If Sinn Féin can convert the support it is getting in the polls into 10 Dáil seats or more, then it could have the numbers to elect him if Fianna Fáil comes back with about 70 seats.
Of course, that support would probably hinge on Ahern forgetting about his pledge not to do a deal with Sinn Féin. Given that the party will be in power in the North, that might not be so difficult. Sinn Féin has also gone out of its way in recent controversies not to go too hard on the Taoiseach, and is clearly hoping to put itself in a position to deal with him.
The open divergence between the PDs and Fianna Fáil has allowed the Fine Gael-Labour alternative to claim that it is now the only stable government available.
The two parties have to date fought a coherent and unified campaign, but they need to keep up the momentum to ride out any sympathy backlash in favour of Fianna Fáil.