Fianna Fáil is attempting to recover from a political miscalculation that led the Taoiseach to present an unambiguous vote-buying election package to its ardfheis last month. Flanked by the Minister for Finance Brian Cowen at Government Buildings yesterday, Mr Ahern offered a revised interpretation of what had been offered.
The party's multi-billion euro spending plans for the next five years were cautious and affordable in the context of an annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent, he said. Not only that, they were intended to maintain a budget surplus and eliminate the national debt.
Prudence and fiscal responsibility were projected as the defining elements of the document "Securing Prosperity - the Next Steps Forward" that will form the basis of the party's manifesto. But, with an election date yet to be declared and a three-week campaign in prospect, Fianna Fáil is withholding details of some additional blandishments. Those commitments will be included in 15 policy documents to be publicised during the coming weeks. And while no provision has yet been made for the reform of stamp duty, it has not been excluded. Changes of that nature, Mr Cowen said, would be carefully designed not to "unbalance the housing market".
In repositioning itself on the high ground of prudent fiscal management, following its ardfheis gaffe, the party has focused on the future, rather than be drawn into debate on its 10-year record, which contains some spectacular instances of public waste and administrative failures. Having trumped the commitments already made by the alternative government parties, it now offers the electorate a continuation of good economic times in contrast to the uncertainties involved in the establishment of an inexperienced government.
There is no doubting the powerful position occupied by Fianna Fáil. It has methodically prepared for this election for two years. And while public support may have declined in recent months, it is still widely regarded as the primary party of government. Figures for the return of a Fianna Fáil/Progressive Democrats government may not add up, but it is more than willing to share power with the Labour Party or the Green Party should the preferences of those parties for an arrangement with Fine Gael not materialise.
The greatest threat to its plans for a return to government lies in past administrative and policy failures. Commitments made in 2002 were abandoned within months of the election because of an economic downturn. Rising interest rates and falling house prices could have a similar impact. Hard political choices would then have to be made. And Mr Cowen has insisted that implementation of the National Development Plan will take precedence. Should that happen, commitments on tax cuts, higher pensions and improved public service would be affected. Voters should recognise there is no such thing as a free lunch when examining the manifestos of the competing parties.