Finding a way forward in Iraq

The mess that is post-war Iraq has intensified dangerously this week, just when the occupation coalition led by the United States…

The mess that is post-war Iraq has intensified dangerously this week, just when the occupation coalition led by the United States had hoped to pacify the country ahead of the extremely limited formal transfer of sovereignty to Iraqis on June 30th. Instead they face a rebellion in both the "Sunni triangle" area and among the majority Shia population, requiring extra troops and equipment after the heaviest loss of life since the war.

There is serious disagreement about how to run Iraq in both the US and British governments. And ordinary Iraqis openly despair about the lack of security and heavy loss of life arising from inept coalition policies.

In an unprecedented gesture 52 former senior British diplomats, many of them experts on the Middle East, have published an open letter to their prime minister, Mr Blair, criticising his support of US policy and saying he should exert his influence to change it or completely review its validity. In a blunt rejection of the military tactics being used, they say "heavy weapons unsuited to the task in hand, inflammatory language, the current confrontations in Najaf and Falluja, all these have built up rather than isolated the opposition".

It is an appropriate comment in a week which saw AC-130 gunships first used in the Vietnam war strafing Falluja and President Bush repeating his belief that "foreign fighters, disgruntled Baathists and friends of the Shia cleric" are responsible for the resistance, not a people alienated by US policy.

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British media report deep disquiet among top military commanders about whether to send extra troops to fill in gaps left by the departing Spaniards. The chief of the British general staff, Sir Michael Jackson, says "we must be able to fight with the Americans but that does not mean we must fight as the Americans".

Acknowledging doctrinal differences with the Americans in post-conflict situations, he and other senior British military refer to lessons learned from imperial withdrawals and in Northern Ireland about peace-keeping and security. Similar reservations about the Bush administration's policy are surfacing among US diplomats and military leaders and are reflected in decisions to rehire Baath officials and army officers.

Only now is it becoming clear how Iraq will be ruled after June 30th. US officials say a transitional Iraqi administration will not be able to make or unmake laws and will have no control over security or occupation forces. Their task will rather be to prepare elections by January next year. Mr Bush has turned to the United Nations to provide the transition with the international legitimacy and Iraqi acceptance which have eluded the outgoing Iraqi Governing Council.

He is relying on the UN special envoy Mr Lackhdar Brahimi to choose a team there. US and British diplomats are working on a new UN Security Council resolution to mandate it. But if the powers involved are so risibly minimal, and the political strategy so unclear and disputed it is not worth the effort. A much more ambitious plan for UN control is needed.