First real test of how voters feel about EU constitution

Deaglán de Bréadún assesses Spain's referendum campaign, the first of 10 such polls on the proposed EU constitution.

Deaglán de Bréadún assesses Spain's referendum campaign, the first of 10 such polls on the proposed EU constitution.

In his classic poem Dark Rosaleen, James Clarence Mangan seeks to encourage an Irish nation downcast by famine and hard times with the prediction that foreign aid will be forthcoming and "Spanish ale shall give you hope . . . shall give you health, and help, and hope". Two centuries on, Ireland is a prosperous, independent state which has joined with others, including Spain, to form the 25-member European Union.

But, whatever about Spanish ale, how much hope is there for proponents of the European Constitution in the result of yesterday's referendum and what does it say about the health of the EU-wide campaign to endorse the treaty?

Despite Spain's reputation as a europhile nation, the referendum campaign was a difficult one for the Yes side. Although some politicians might have been tempted to take a back seat, Spain's Prime Minister, Mr Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero, led from the front and staked his political reputation on the outcome.

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While few doubted that there would be a substantial Yes majority, the main focus of interest and concern was turnout and, increasingly in the last few days, the size of the No vote.

There was a lot at stake. As many as nine other member-states are also planning referendums. The trickiest one, as far as supporters of the constitution are concerned, will be in the UK, where the news media and political life are pervaded with anti-EU sentiment. But other results could be in the balance - e.g. in Denmark, Poland, the Czech Republic and, crucially, in France.

The referendum in France is planned for May or June this year, but the decision of the voters may be affected by extraneous questions such as Turkey's proposed accession to the EU or domestic political issues.

And last night's Spanish result will have a significant impact on the political atmosphere in France.

Ireland will have its own referendum, but the date has yet to be announced. The smart money at the moment is on the third week of October, but a negative result from France in the summer could affect the timing and would probably spell the death of the entire project.

While the Irish public is generally seen as more pro-EU than the British, the latest Eurobarometer opinion poll showed that an overwhelming majority of our electorate were unsure of how they would vote. There were 67 per cent undecided, with 28 per cent in favour and 5 per cent against. Almost half the electorate - some 45 per cent - either "had not heard of" or "knew very little about" the constitution.

As Prof Richard Sinnott of UCD put it: "Favourable attitudes to the European Union cannot be taken for granted as indicating a willingness to participate in a referendum or to vote 'yes'."

Meanwhile, in Spain, the 34.6 million people eligible to vote yesterday were asked: "Do you approve the treaty instituting a constitution for Europe?" The referendum was non-binding, with the process of ratification in the hands of the Cortes, the Spanish parliament, but this was seen as a formality.

The decision of many Spaniards to stay away from the polls was not motivated, for the most part, by hostility or scepticism towards the EU, but by lack of information, confusion and a feeling that EU membership was an immutable fact of life, like the sunshine, the Pyrenees and the Costa Brava.

In an attempt to enhance the turnout, voters were bombarded with advertisements featuring the likes of former FC Barcelona manager Johan Cruyff reading passages from the text of the constitution. But the vast majority of the electorate - about three-quarters - still said that they did not understand the issues.

As well as Mr Zapatero's governing Socialists, the conservative opposition Popular Party also called for a Yes vote along with moderate nationalists in the Basque and Catalan regions. Mr Zapatero repeatedly stressed during the campaign that the eyes of Europe were on Spain.

It is less than a year since the Spanish capital was hit by the massive train-bombings claimed by al-Qaeda, which killed 191 people, and attacks by the Basque terrorist group ETA still continue.

At a rally in Madrid to mark the end of the campaign, the Prime Minister made an emotional appeal for a Yes vote to make Europe a safer place and assist the fight against terrorism. He argued that the EU constitution was as important as the constitution approved by Spain in 1978, which restored democracy after nearly 40 years of fascist dictatorship under Gen Franco.

As with EU referendums in Ireland, the No camp is composed of a wide variety of elements. The most prominent opponent is Mr Gaspar Llamazares, leader of the United Left party, who complained that the constitution failed "to recognise social rights like the right to decent housing". The Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya or ERC (Catalan Republican Left), which is a partner in the region's semi-autonomous government, objected that the treaty did not acknowledge the rights of nations such as Catalonia which do not, as yet, have their own state.

Traditionally, Catalan nationalists have been more pro-European than mainstream Spanish politicians and some claimed that their opposition was based on a belief that the constitution was not sufficiently integrationist. At the same time, far-right groups sought to play on a different kind of sentiment with the slogan "No to Turkey in Europe", accompanied by a map of Europe dominated by the Turkish symbol of the red crescent.

Adding to the complexity was the underlying tension between the Socialists and the opposition Popular Party, leading to charge and counter-charge. Both were formally on the same side of the referendum debate, but the Socialists alleged that the PP was speaking with a forked tongue, hoping to damage the government by encouraging a No vote behind the scenes while publicly calling for a Yes.

The Spanish government spent about €7.5 million on its campaign and millions of copies of an abridged version of the constitution were distributed. As a light-hearted gimmick to get the youth vote out, cans of an "energy" drink called Referendum Plus were distributed.

A poster from the government-funded Youth Council showed a monkey turning into a voter after downing the contents of the can. "This drink could change your life," said the caption. "Thanks to its stimulating action against fatigue, you'll go out and vote."

But you cannot please everybody: the Spanish students' union demanded that the poster be withdrawn because it was "insulting".

The first lesson for all sides from the Spanish campaign is that you can make a monkey out of the voter but you cannot make a voter out of the monkey.

Deaglán de Bréadún is Foreign Affairs Correspondent of The Irish Times.