There are two principal questions that hang in the air over the new Indian government; what will it do and how long will it last? Given the conflicting ambitions of the many parties and individuals which constitute this minority coalition government, there may be more likelihood of it staying in office if it tries to achieve very little of substance. Remaining in power, in any event, will be of paramount importance for the prime minister, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee who faces a confidence motion next week. Two years ago he had his first spell as prime minister but he and his government lasted just 13 days.
After two years of weak United Front government (itself a coalition of 13 parties) getting vital but intermittent support from the Congress party, it was hoped that the general election might manifest a clearer political situation. But instead it did the opposite. The lower house of parliament, the Lok Sabha, is as hung as a parliament can be. The largest party, the staunchly-Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) captured 179 of the 539 seats, an increase of 15. However, even with the support of 20 small parties and independents, it can still only muster a vote of 264, eight short of a majority. It is expected to win next week's confidence motion only because one party within the United Front, the TDP, has said it will abstain on the vote. And yet, the TDP is not leaving the United Front so its neutrality cannot be relied upon. India has replaced a very fragile coalition with one of even greater fragility.
As a consequence, the new government's legislative programme can be expected to err on the timid side. This may not prove beneficial for the economy. Mr Vajpayee has called for "reconciliation and accord" instead of the adversarial politics that New Delhi is used to. Of this there is little chance. However, to encourage such a culture switch his government's policy statement is unashamedly vague. The militant Hindus within the BJP have seen cherished priorities ditched, especially their anti-Muslim ambitions. They will suffer it for the moment on the assumption that moderation and good government may result in a BJP majority after the next election, whereupon their tune may be different.
Unfortunately, Mr Vajpayee's search for reconciliation and accord does not reach outside the country. The policy ambivalence is missing on the contentious issue of nuclear weapons. His government, he says, will "induct" nuclear weapons. This policy is not unpopular; it meets with the approval of his coalition partners and it will not be criticised much by the opposition. Nuclear capability is an indication of India's true independence and vigour. Mr Vajpayee must know that deployment of nuclear weapons will greatly disturb India's neighbours and force Pakistan to do likewise. It was to be hoped that the pragmatic Mr Vajpayee, who served as foreign minister in the 1970s and keeps that post in this government, would have appreciated the dangers of adding nuclear capability to the cauldron of tension in the sub-continent.
There are many issues which could bring down this government, not least the hostility between its constituent parts. If Mr Vajpayee trips up, the focus of attention will turn onto the new leader of the Congress party, Ms Sonia Gandhi. Last week she became party president and on Tuesday she was elected to chair the parliamentary party, even though she herself is not a member of parliament. After years of resistance, Ms Gandhi has evidently decided not just that she will do whatever it takes to return Congress to government but that if she succeeds, she will lead that government.