A lot hangs on tomorrow's vote by Green Party members on whether the party should support the Lisbon Treaty in this year's referendum campaign. Although the issue did not form part of the coalition bargaining last year support for the treaty is a fundamental part of the Government's programme. This has been acknowledged by the two Green Ministers and Oireachtas members who are in favour of the treaty, together with most of the party's elected representatives throughout the country. Their political credibility will be tested by the decision.
While it is very much part of their party's ethos to have such an open democratic debate it remains to be seen whether the leadership can carry the party base with it, as it did so effectively on the decision to enter government. A two-thirds majority is needed at this convention for the party to support the treaty. Its leaders are confident of carrying an absolute majority with them, less so of reaching that threshold. That is why there are three options before the members: a Yes, a No and an intermediate position which would allow the Ministers stay in government even if the party remains opposed or unmandated so that members may campaign either way.
In fact this is much more than a question of leadership alone, since on both questions there has been a genuine development of attitudes among Green Party members, resulting in a different approach to exerting political influence. The logic of their willingness to enter government differs from that of constant opposition, as was seen in the overwhelming majority with which that momentous decision was carried last June. The argument that the Green agenda is best pursued in office where it can influence national policy on climate change, environmental conditions and sustainability applies equally well to the Lisbon Treaty, which is intended to enhance the European Union's capacity to deal effectively with these issues at international level.
Whether that argument will carry at tomorrow's convention remains uncertain. For years the Greens have been critical of successive EU treaties on the basis that they depleted state sovereignty, diminished Ireland's neutrality and reduced democratic participation. This put them in line with similar Green parties in the UK and Scandinavia. Each of these positions is contested by more Europhile Greens elsewhere in continental Europe who say their values are much better served by a stronger and more democratic EU capable of dealing with inherently transnational issues like growing economic interdependence, global warming, development and insecurity. In many ways the Irish Greens are evolving towards the second of these positions.
The Greens' political commitment and energy are needed by the Government if the treaty is to be passed. Rejecting it would have heavy costs for this State. A comprehensive effort is needed to raise knowledge and awareness of the treaty from its present lamentably low level, allowing an informed debate on its merits to take place.