Consensus politics, apathy and fragmentation of the left-wing vote have combined to deliver a stunning political blow to France and Europe. Mr Jean-Marie Le Pen's defeat of the prime minister, Mr Lionel Jospin, in the first round of the presidential elections confronts French voters with a choice between him and Mr Jacques Chirac. Mr Le Pen's breakthrough brings a new agenda of xenophobic nationalism onto the political agenda.
The effects will be felt throughout the continent, irrespective of his likely defeat on May 5th. A number of similar parties are at work in other European countries. Their appeal is grounded in common conditions and expresses shared frustrations among marginalised classes and groups. Many people feel increasingly powerless when confronted with political consensus and a process of European integration unaccompanied by democratic accountability; they are willing to accept extremist ideas in response. Mainstream political parties will now have to confront this, both in national politics and through the Convention on the Future of Europe and the inter-governmental conference to follow it. This result will sharpen the issues involved but, regrettably, it may make governments more cautious in tackling them.
The campaign was marked by an unprecedented level of apathy, along with deep dissatisfaction about the political choices on offer. In polls most people said they could hardly distinguish between the programmes put forward by Mr Chirac and Mr Jospin. They lamented the absence of enlivening political exchanges and the personal bombast and animosity that was substituted for it. This helps to explain the appeal of extreme left and right-wing candidates. Their strong showing in the results, especially that of Mr Le Pen, serves as a profound warning to the French political establishment as it faces into the final round of the presidential vote on May 5th and the parliamentary elections on June 9th and 16th.
Despite their apparent disillusionment with the political centre ground French voters have taken to the cohabitation power-sharing arrangement whereby presidents and the National Assembly have been run by different political majorities since the mid-1980s. Most now consider the parliamentary elections far more important than the presidential one.
Despite Mr Le Pen's humiliation of Mr Jospin and the likely victory of Mr Chirac in the second round it remains possible that the parliamentary elections will produce a left-wing majority not unlike the present government.
That would put the constitutional future of the Fifth Republic on the agenda. Often described as a republican monarchy, its political balance has changed substantially since the days of Charles de Gaulle and François Mitterrand. Largely because of the effects of European integration the presidency has become less powerful. That would explain much of the apathy and frustration so apparent in Sunday's vote. After this shock it would be surprising if that was replicated in the second round or in the parliamentary voting.