Just when it was thought that peace had re-established itself in Kashmir, an Indian Air Force MiG 21 shoots down a Pakistan patrol aircraft, killing all 16 on board. This is the kind of incident that sends tempers flaring, threatens to suspend rational thought and runs the risk of flinging the 50-year border dispute back onto the edge of all-out war. India had better have a good explanation. As of now, it has not offered one.
As always, there are conflicting statements on exactly where the aircraft was vis-a-vis the contentious border. Pakistan claims that the maritime reconnaissance aircraft was on a routine training flight - and inside Pakistani airspace - when it was shot down. India, on the other hand, says the aircraft had flown ten kilometres into its airspace when it was challenged and told to land at an Indian air strip. According to the Indian government, the Pakistan aircraft responded to the challenge by "acting in a hostile manner by turning into our fighter" and was promptly shot down. Just to add to the confusion, Pakistan says that the aircraft crashed to earth two miles inside Pakistan and has flown independent observers to the spot. India claims that the wreckage, mired in the mud of the Indus delta, is on the Indian side of the border. That, at least, can be quickly clarified.
Just supposing that the Indian government is correct and that the aircraft had knowingly or inadvertently strayed into Indian airspace. New Delhi alleges that there have been eight incursions by Pakistani aircraft over the last three months. One must wonder therefore why this aircraft had to be shot down if other incursions had been tolerated. For India to say that a clearly unarmed reconnaissance aircraft acted in a hostile manner by turning towards its MiG fighters would be risible if the incident was not so serious. The Pakistan aircraft posed no threat to the MiGs. Shooting down the aircraft in the certainty of killing all on board was quite unjustified and, given the tinderbox condition that area, recklessly dangerous.
And all of this supposes that the Indian government is telling the truth - or has been told the whole truth by its airforce. During the ten weeks of recent fighting, Pakistan shot down two Indian MiGs. One of the pilots was returned to India but the other died; India claimed he had been shot after being tortured by Pakistani troops, a charge which Pakistan denied. Perhaps the ceasefire came before the Indian air force had been able to exact revenge and that is why a defenceless reconnaissance aircraft was downed yesterday. Perhaps hotheads in the Indian air force think nothing of risking the hard-won but very fragile ceasefire. Perhaps the Indian government, facing into a general election in two months' time when its virility on the border issue will be an issue for its supporters, is not displeased by the killings.
It is time for calm deliberation by both governments. Ambassadors have not, as yet, been recalled so the prospects for dialogue are good. It is essential that the international community, especially China, endeavours to persuade Pakistan away from the path of retaliation and to persuade India that some expression of regret would not be out of place.