Iran is attracting much increased attention after the war in Iraq, as United States leaders warn it is developing a nuclear weapons programme and must cease interfering in Iraq's politics and funding anti-Israeli groups.
This coincides with more protests against the regime in Iran, in a major confrontation between reformists and traditionalists. International and domestic pressures could combine to alter the balance of political forces, which have been at a complete impasse since the reformist President Muhammad Khatami was elected in 1997.
There is increasingly convincing evidence that Iran has been accumulating technologies and material to make nuclear weapons. An inspection team by the International Atomic Energy Agency was last week denied access to some facilities and will this week report its concern about the issue. Russia and the European Union have joined in the international calls on Iran to comply with inspections, partly to ensure Iran does not play them against the US, partly to gain political leverage against neo-conservative hawks in the Bush administration who are calling for the regime in Iran to be overthrown. This is part of their wider agenda to impose US control over the Middle East. While there is no immediate prospect of US military action against Iraq many European policy-makers are concerned that this could be an emerging option in US policy.
The latest protests in Iran have drawn on the country's huge youthful population and expressed as much hostility towards President Khatami as to the supreme Ayatollah Muhammad Khomenei, who shares power with the president at the apex of a dual power structure involving Shia Muslims, military and intelligence forces. The protesters are impatient with the prolonged failure to resolve the political impasse one way or another and with repressive steps taken against dissident parties and intellectuals. They draw some inspiration from an external Iranian opposition connected with the Bush administration, but are largely indigenous.
A more engaged approach to Iran is possible to encourage the reformers. It becomes all the more necessary to prevent US policy moving towards military intervention. EU foreign ministers will today debate a new security strategy towards the Middle East, including a warning that Iran's cooperation on nuclear inspections will be linked to trade agreements. The inter-penetration of external pressure on Iran and internal dissent there could become quite volatile and destabilising. It should be balanced by a readiness to engage in diplomatic dialogue to reward compliance with international law.