Ireland's commitment to join the European economic and monetary union when it starts in 1999 is decisively - indeed overwhelmingly - endorsed by popular opinion, according to the findings of the Irish Times/MRBI poll published in this newspaper today. The margin of 76 to 14 per cent agreeing with the single currency project is remarkable for its strength and consistency across class, party, gender and urban rural divides. Even more surprising, given the sceptical voices that have been raised in the media by certain business interests and economists, is the finding that matters hardly at all whether Britain decides to join the currency union, since the figures still stand at 70 for to 19 per cent against, based on that assumption.
Taken together with the Government's clear cut determination to go ahead with EMU membership, as evidenced by its detailed preparatory work under the EU Presidency, and with the decisive political endorsement Irish membership has received from the German Chancellor, Dr Helmut Kohl, during his official visit, it must now be assumed that Ireland will be among the first group of states to join. The financial markets have evidently come to this conclusion, judging by the strong flow of funds into Dublin in recent weeks. Internationally, too, there is a strong current of opinion - and expectation that EMU is more likely than not to be introduced in time, based on a realisation that there is a tremendous political will being mobilised in its favour.
The sceptics have persistently misjudged such factors. This failing has substantially devalued the criticisms many of them have raised about the project, such as whether there is sufficient convergence among the EU economies to sustain it, whether it can survive without substantial transfers or at least shock absorbing financial buffers for vulnerable economies, or whether the effort to adhere to the financial criteria laid down in the Maastricht Treaty in major economies such as Germany, France and Italy may not in fact deflate them in such a way as to provoke popular rejection of the EMU project as a whole.
The next two years will be decisive in these respects. It is clear from these poll findings that the Government's efforts to prepare Ireland for EMU entry enjoy popular confidence. It is fortunate that the extraordinary growth rate and buoyancy of the Irish economy, as well as the prospect of lower interest rates and sound money under EMU, have underwritten its preparatory work. Clearly, too, such confidence plays over into attitudes towards the European Union as a whole, as is also revealed in this poll.
Irish people are among the most enthusiastic Europeans, it finds. But there is no room for complacency among those who value more European integration. The average figures conceal wide variations in enthusiasm between different classes, between men and women and between the employed and unemployed. The transition to a currency union according to the stringent conditions being designed under German tutelage, could exacerbate such differences and swing the balance over coming years, if care is not taken to protect Ireland's interests and mitigate the impact of change on vulnerable groups. These findings are, however, a heartening indication that the effort to create a more integrated Europe is worthwhile, notably in the crucial area of employment.