Scotland is inching towards independence and looking to Ireland for inspiration. But not for long, predicts Michael O'Sullivan
The probable victory of the Scottish National Party (SNP) in today's Scottish Assembly elections means that a referendum on some form of independence for Scotland is highly likely. A Yes vote in such a referendum would shatter the 1707 Act of Union on its three hundredth anniversary and set the Scots free to plot their own economic, social and political destiny. In turn, a Yes vote would also carry huge strategic implications for Ireland.
Imagine for instance how a break-up of the union between England and Scotland would fire the hearts and minds of both communities in Northern Ireland.
At the same time, a Scotland apart could become a more aggressive competitor of Ireland's for foreign capital and labour, though the two countries may act more closely together politically in the Council of the Isles or in the Council of the European Union.
Until a referendum on Scottish independence is held, the case of Scotland has nonetheless plenty to teach us about our own country and the forthcoming general election in Ireland. The debate on Scottish independence is telling in how it reflects on the great transformation of Ireland's fortunes over the past 15 years. As in many other small countries, Ireland is the template that pro-independence politicians in Scotland point to when advocating a break with England. For example, in a short article for the Financial Times on December 13th, Alex Salmond, leader of the SNP, made seven references to Ireland while outlining the potential benefits of independence for Scotland.
His rationale is that the economic independence that follows political freedom will lead to higher growth and that the economic transformation of Ireland is a case in point.
Seeing the eagerness of Scotland's desire to follow the road to globalisation that Ireland has led should also make us think about what globalisation has done to Ireland. We have gone from a poor independent country to a rich one very interdependent on the ebb and flow of globalisation.
It is useful to consider the words of James Connolly, a Scot who had a great influence on Irish public life in the 20th century. In defining what made a free nation he asked: "A free nation is one that possesses absolute control over all its own internal resources and powers, and which has no restriction upon its intercourse with all other nations similarly circumstanced except the restrictions placed upon it by nature. Is that the case of Ireland? No."
When faced with that question today, Ireland must also answer No. As a highly globalised country it has little control over its political economic environment, nor on the effects upon it from global financial markets or world events. At the same time Irish society is increasingly dominated by the spirit of the Celtic Tiger, to the extent that it is arguably less equal, free and fraternal. The way in which this trend transpires in the future may convince the Scots that they should be careful what they wish for.
Inflation is high and property prices are stretched. Income and wealth gains are not well distributed. While public debt is low, private sector debt (mortgages and credit cards) is very high. Consumers and households are caught in a cruel upward spiral of rising expectations. Further, there are marginal signs that foreign investors are tiring of Ireland as an investment location, while domestic industry is increasingly uncompetitive.
Without a sense of what model we should use to interpret and deal with globalisation, our future is less clear, and soon countries like Scotland will stop looking to us as the way forward.
Michael O'Sullivan is the author of Ireland and the Global Question (Cork University Press). He works in the City of London as an equity strategist