IT’S A case of back to the future. The man elected by the lower house of parliament yesterday as Japan’s new prime minister, Yoshihiko Noda (54), is its sixth in five years, and the third of ruling Democratic Party (DPJ) since its election in 2009 on a radical political reform agenda – it has seriously disappointed. But Noda is very much cut from the cloth of the Liberal Democrats who ran the country for decades. Economically and fiscally conservative, the finance minister, although not known as an ideologue, has controversially brandished the nationalist flag and publicly opposed his predecessor Naoto Kan’s new and popular anti-nuclear stance.
The DPJ has chosen a man with little charisma, known for his conciliatory and consensual approach – a contrast with the famously irascible Kan – but few observers hold out any greater hopes for the longevity of his premiership than those he follows. Polls show a majority in the country favoured a rival in the contest, while the recent history of revolving-door leadership has left many Japanese sceptical about whether the political system is able for the challenges it faces.
Noda’s own party also remains deeply divided. His candidacy was opposed by the veteran, divisive power broker Ichiro Osawa, who controls the DPJ’s main faction, and the latter’s supporters may yet be tempted to break away, not least if they are excluded from senior cabinet posts. And Noda, who has made a central issue of reducing the country’s massive debt, was alone among the five leadership contenders in favour of tax increases, particularly a “reconstruction tax”.
His appeals to the opposition LDP to join a coalition to confront the reconstruction challenges arising from the March earthquake have fallen on deaf ears. It can deprive Noda of a majority in the upper house.
And his past willingness to minimise Japanese war crimes and to contemplate visiting Tokyo’s controversial Yasukuni war dead shrine as prime minister has already prompted a cautionary note from Beijing. Yesterday, to signal a willingness to improve the tetchy relations with China, he promised not to overturn previous governments’ acceptance of guilty verdicts on war criminals.
The political agenda has been dominated by the aftermath of the earthquake and the Kan government’s less than impressive response, while the economy has shrunk for three quarters in a row under Noda’s watch. The rising yen is also putting serious pressure on the profits of export-dependent businesses. Japan’s new prime minister has an unenviable job.