Labour and DL fumble like partners who have loved and lost before

The DAIL is back after the summer recess, and it looks as if it's shaping up to be an interesting autumn.

The DAIL is back after the summer recess, and it looks as if it's shaping up to be an interesting autumn.

Labour and Democratic Left are still tentatively courting each other. Their on-again, off-again engagement resembles the tentative fumblings of lovers who have loved and lost before.

They seem to spend a lot of time "working on their relationship", endlessly talking about how things will work out.

At the same time they are claiming that they are "just good friends" to anyone who asks, so they won't look as if they've been jilted if it all doesn't pan out.

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While, in broad terms, they seem to share enough ideologically to make such a coupling a logical move, the nature of our electoral system would militate against it. There are constituencies where two left-wing candidates would not, it seems to me, get elected, despite what might have happened in 1992.

That, combined with the obvious and lack of interest of some of the Labour TDs, indicates that this is one marriage destined for the divorce courts at best.

Meanwhile Mr Justice Moriarty and Mr Justice Flood are working away on their tribunals, and while they work there remains a certain political nervousness.

What has happened to Padraig Flynn is enough to make any politician jumpy. Here is a man whose financial reputation had been without blemish.

Some information was leaked, some accusations were made without any evidence being proffered, and now it has been assumed that he is guilty.

Perhaps this could be justified if these allegations were not already being covered as part of a tribunal. But they are being investigated, and it is the result of those investigations that should be reported.

The tribunal chairmen will have to do their business in a way which avoids feeding the rumour mill. The only way to prevent speculation and leaks is to have all discussions in public.

David Andrews's Department had a hectic few months ahead of it before the disputes between its most senior members became public. The peace process, unrest in Albania and Yugoslavia, and worldwide financial and political turmoil would have filled their diaries already.

Now the Minister is going to have to deal quickly and efficiently with a controversy he could have done without. Charlie McCreevy will be as busy as any other Minister this term. He will have to deal with the pressure being put on public service pay structures by the demands of the nurses. He also has to produce a Budget that has the potential to be a victim of the success of previous budgets.

Every pressure group in the country knows he has many millions more to spend than before. They have been angling for a slice of the Exchequer pie over the summer, and their campaigns will intensify over the coming months.

The core of their arguments is simple and emotive: the country is doing well so why can't we all do well? This makes good copy and is difficult to argue against, doubly so because Charlie will have to respond by talking about abstract economic concepts.

Financial discipline does not match up well against pictures of people living in cardboard boxes.

The mood after the summer recess is good for the Government. The Taoiseach's popularity ratings are high: he seems to be able to do no wrong and has been performing superbly. The first serious test he will face will be how his party fights a by-election it is unlikely to win.

Fianna Fail's candidate in Cork is excellent, but it is genuinely hard to expect her to win in a constituency where they already have three seats. It is especially difficult when the late Hugh Coveney's son is one of the candidates. He is energetic, young and good-looking (apologies to the PC set), all of which will work in his favour in an election fought through the media.

These factors, combined with the universal liking that his late father enjoyed in Leinster House, will no doubt be exploited during the campaign by Fine Gael. Whatever the outcome, in Sinead Behan Fianna Fail has found itself a candidate who will be successful in the future and who will be a welcome addition in the already strong team working for it in the second capital.

Apart from this likely victory the future does not look so rosy for Fine Gael. John Bruton has an uphill battle on his hands trying to renew his party.

His, and his party's, Dail performances need to be sharpened, and that is not easy when you have a very popular Government in power. Were it not for the local and European elections next June, his position would not be so grim.

Both these polls, however, will provide unavoidable evidence of how well, or otherwise, Fine Gael is doing. When this Government was first formed with its tenuous majority, the worry was that it would be only a matter of time before it was brought down.

But its strong performance and strong opinion-poll showings have precluded that possibility and, unless a remarkable turnaround is achieved by the opposition, this Government will run its course.

One other factor is going to make this one of the most fascinating Dail terms of recent years. tv3, loopy weathermen and all, has arrived. It is another hungry media mouth to feed, and feed it the politicians must.

In the "good old days" politicians spent most of their time trying to avoid the media and, when we had just the three national papers and RTE to deal with, this was not too difficult. Now we have a frightening list of publications and stations.

They are all fighting for a slice of a relatively small market and will gleefully cut each others' throats for scoops. And the politicians know that, simply to survive, they have to keep themselves in the media limelight for as long as they can.

It will be curious to see who can achieve this and still get their real work done.