From June 22nd, the Government is likely to be reliant on the support of deputies subject to allegations of financial wrongdoing for its survival. The nightmare scenario, which the PDs warned would bring this Coalition down should it come about, is almost here.
Mr Liam Lawlor's swift exit from Fianna Fail brings the Government total down to 78 Dail seats. Presuming Fianna Fail loses the Tipperary South by-election on June 22nd - and no Government party has won a by-election for 18 years - the Opposition will be able to muster 81 deputies.
The four Independents who back the Government - Mr Neil Blaney, Ms Mildred Fox, Mr Tom Gildea and Mr Jackie Healy-Rae - would bring the Government numbers up to just 82. That's presuming none of them has a pang of conscience on some issue, as Ms Fox did recently on Mr Hugh O'Flaherty's European appointment. Even with the support of all four, the Government would be reliant on Mr Denis Foley, who was expelled from the parliamentary party after it emerged he was an Ansbacher account-holder, and on Mr Lawlor.
Nor is Mr Lawlor the only FF ail deputy about whom the report raises questions. For example, the report, which declares it "imprudent" for politicians to get large donations from developers seeking favours, shows that Mr G.V. Wright TD got donations which certainly fit into this category.
The speed of Mr Lawlor's departure will mean the spotlight will now shine more brightly on the Dublin North deputy. A fundamental contradiction emerged last night between Mr Wright, who says donations he received were unsolicited, and the property developer Mr Owen O'Callaghan, who says donations he gave, including a £5,000 cheque to Mr Wright in 1992, were indeed solicited.
Mr Wright got £2,000 in cash from Mr Frank Dunlop in 1991, a further £5,000 cash from him in 1992 and another £3,000 in 1993. In 1992, he got the £5,000 from Mr Owen O'Callaghan, £2,500 from the developers of Malahide Marina, £1,000 each from Andelieu Ltd and Monarch Properties and £500 from Ballycullen Farms. In all he got £20,000 in the 1991-'93 period.
All of this money was unsolicited and was given for political purposes, according to Mr Wright. Not so, according to Mr O'Callaghan.
Mr Wright was among the most enthusiastic supporters of land rezoning motions, although he did vote against a major rezoning plan for land at Baldoyle in which Mr Dunlop had an interest. As party whip on the council from 1991 to 1994, he was in a pivotal position to influence other councillors' decisions.
Other deputies received smaller, yet significant sums. Ms Marian McGennis got printing worth £3,000 carried out by Mr Dunlop in 1992, a further £1,400 in the form of a cheque just after the 1991 local elections and a number of other smaller sums. A number of non-Oireachtas members - notably former councillor Mr Sean Gilbride who got £13,500 "financial support" from Mr Owen O'Callaghan - also received significant sums.
But Mr Lawlor's quick action reflected the fact that he was in a league of his own, and it appeared inevitable that his party would push if he did not jump first. Mr Lawlor has no major power base in Fianna Fail and, in addition, a number of senior figures calculated that the party could only emerge with an enhanced image after expelling someone with questions to answer about money.
According to the inquiry report, he got large sums of money from developers and their agents; he withheld some of the details from an earlier inquiry; he did not co-operate with or properly assist this latest inquiry; and he has no records to show where much of the money ended up.
He certainly got a lot of money. He got £12,000 to £14,000 in political donations from Mr Frank Dunlop in the late 1980s and early 1990s. He got £38,000 from him in consultancy fees in 1994/95 relating to "services provided" since 1989. There was anything between £17,500 and £35,000 from Arlington Securities in 1989 and a few payments of £1,000 to £2,000 from developer Mr John Byrne. That's close to £100,000.
But while there is loads of money, there is very little documentation. He doesn't know which bank account the £38,000 went into. He is continuing to try to trace the payments from Arlington. "There wouldn't be much in the way of paper," remarked one party source yesterday.
There are lots of inconsistencies: the committee says he told it on May 17th he had invoiced Mr Frank Dunlop for £38,000 for consultancy work through a Prague-based company, the Irish Consortium. On May 31st he told them he had issued the invoice personally, not through the Prague company.
His lack of clarity doesn't stop there. Two years ago it was reported he had received three payments of £3,500 each from Mr Tom Gilmartin on behalf of Arlington Securities, a company that was planning a major development on Bachelor's Walk.
Mr Lawlor first said these were consultancy fees. He later said they were political donations. It was then reported he had received 10 such payments, a report he did not deny. He first told the inquiry he had received three or four such payments. He later said he had traced four or five. There is no paper to show exactly how many payments there were, or where they went.
Now Mr Lawlor is gone from the Fianna Fail party. Like all the best fighters, he saw he was in a battle he was not going to win and got out of it with as little damage as possible in the circumstances.