The defeat of the Dutch Social Democrats this week in an unusual election is the latest in a shift to the parties of the right across Europe, Denis Staunton reports from Rotterdam
This week's extraordinary election in the Netherlands was dominated by the murder of the populist politician Pim Fortuyn and the remarkable success of the anti-immigration party he left behind. But the rise of List Pim Fortuyn may prove less significant in the long term than the election's other sensation - the catastrophic collapse of support for Europe's most successful Social Democratic party.
After eight years in government, Prime Minister Mr Wim Kok's Labour Party has lost almost half of its seats in parliament.
The party's new leader, Mr Ad Melkert, has resigned and Labour is preparing for a long period in opposition.
Wednesday's vote was the latest in a series of humiliations for the centre-left in Europe that has seen half the continent swing toward the right in just two years.
In 1999, Ireland, Spain and Luxembourg were the only EU member states with centre-right governments. Since then, centre-left governments have fallen in Austria, Italy, Denmark, Portugal and now the Netherlands.
For Mr John Palmer of the European Policy Centre, a centre-left think tank in Brussels, this succession of defeats for social democracy is partly a cyclical swing of the political pendulum.
"There has been a very unusual synchronisation of national political cycles. That is a symptom of European integration," he said.
But Palmer identifies in the success of far-right and populist politicians throughout Europe a backlash against centre parties of both left and right.
The success of Third Way politicians, such as Britain's Mr Tony Blair and Germany's Mr Gerhard Schröder, and of conservative modernisers, such as Spain's Mr José Maria Aznar, has blurred the distinction between mainstream parties.
"They are all in the same ideological telephone box and it is very difficult to see important differences between them," he said.
Economic globalisation has reduced the influence of national governments over the economy at the same time as the fragmentation of the old working class has robbed social democracy of much of its traditional voter base.
The dramatic collapse of Mr Kok's Labour party is none the less astonishing, not least because the Dutch Prime Minister presided over one of Europe's most successful economies.
The economy has grown by 3 per cent each year since 1982, a faster rate than the EU average. Unemployment has fallen from 11 per cent in 1983 to a remarkable 2 per cent today.
In international indices of contentment, the Dutch consistently appear on top and Holland appears to most outsiders an enviably prosperous, liberal country. Prof Ruut Weenhoven, professor of Happiness Studies at Rotterdam's Erasmus University, says that the combination of material wealth and personal freedom usually produces a happy country. But this contentment does not always translate into support for elected politicians.
"A high level of wealth and personal freedom also makes people more critical so they demand more direct participation in their communities," he said. Discontent with Mr Kok's government focused on deteriorating public services, especially health and transport and anxiety over crime and immigration. Proud of its record of fiscal rectitude, the government was unwilling to spend public money on improving services and many Dutch voters believed that their politicians were blind to the rise in crime. Mr Fortuyn focused popular unease on immigrants, especially Muslims, arguing that they represented a threat to the liberal, Dutch way of life.
Many of those who voted for Mr Fortuyn's party were from traditional Labour strongholds who felt that the government had lost touch with their concerns. Wherever the centre-left has lost power in Europe recently, "insecurity" has been identified as one of the prime motives for voting against them.
Some of this insecurity is caused by rising crime but much of the unease among European citizens is due to the hectic pace of economic change. Privatisation of public utilities and the decline of manufacturing industry has made jobs more insecure. Mainstream politicians laud the virtues of a flexible labour market but few workers feel reassured by the introduction of laws to make hiring and firing easier.
Mr Palmer believes that the only option for survival available to the left is to focus on the supranational level where the most important economic decisions are made.
"In a globalised world, the left of centre must compensate for the diminishing room for manoeuvre at national level," he said.
This means shaping the EU's economic agenda and embracing economic policy co-ordination. But Mr Palmer argues that the victory of economic liberalism offers an opportunity to social democrats, as the pendulum of public opinion begins to swing against a culture of greed.
He says the time has come for the left to break ranks with the liberal economic consensus.
"There needs to be a major rethink of where the left should find itself in the modern world.
"Part of that must be coming to terms with the limitations of me- tooism on economic liberalism. It doesn't sustain left-of-centre governments in office. The left needs to rediscover the role of society and societal interests," he said.
Unfortunately for left-leaning European integrationists, such as Mr Palmer, the European Commission often appears to be more enthusiastic about the free market than many right-wing governments.
Mr Schröder recently accused the Commission of ignoring political reality by pursuing liberal economic policies with almost theological zeal.
Prof Weenhoven believes that the key to satisfying the political appetite of Europe's jaded public is to provide more opportunities for direct democracy, such as referendums.
He points to Switzerland as a country where referendums have secured public confidence in the political system. The example is an unhappy one, however, for Europe's social democrats.
The fastest-growing political movement in Switzerland is the far-right People's Party, which opposes social welfare, the UN - and the EU.
Denis Staunton is European Correspondent of The Irish Times