Later today the Travers report on the illegal charges levied on more than 300,000 people in nursing homes will be published.
The blame game will begin and, given the longevity of the scandal, there will be ammunition for almost everyone to fire at almost everyone else. Before the shooting starts, however, it is important that we don't lose sight of a crucial issue.
Where is the money to compensate the people who were illegally charged (estimates range from €500 million to €2 billion) going to come from?
Will the State rob Peter to pay Pauline, taking services away from those who need them and thus punishing the innocent? On the surface, the answer seems to be "no". Last week Brian Cowen said there would be a supplementary estimate to provide the money this year. Earlier in the week Minister for Health Mary Harney had announced there would be no cutbacks in the estimate for the Department of Health or any other department as a result of the Supreme Court ruling on the issue.
But this seems to be mere spin. For it seems clear that the Government does in fact intend to make the payments at the expense of investment in the health services. In the Seanad, Mary Harney said: "The sum of money involved [ in the repayments] could pay for the construction of a new children's hospital in Crumlin, a new Mater hospital and probably at least one other hospital." She has also said: "It clearly will be at the expense of other things, naturally" and "it will certainly come at the expense of future services in some area".
So the ground is being prepared. When, in the next few years, people point to the disgraceful state of the National Children's Hospital in Crumlin, the Government will have a ready-made culprit: the nasty old people who took all the money.
But governments can always find money for things they really want to do. Suppose the repayments cost something around €1.5 billion. It's a lot of cash, but since it came into office in 1997, the Government has had no trouble at all wasting €1.5 billion on whims, follies and half-baked schemes, none of which has brought any real public benefit. Here's a quick tot:
The Bertie Bowl fiasco. Everyone knows the Abbotstown folly was eventually abandoned. What is often forgotten is that by the time that happened, the relocation of the agricultural laboratories from Abbotstown to Backweston in Lucan cost an estimated €120 million. Relocating the State lab cost €78.7 million and moving the central veterinary research facility cost €11 million. That's well over €200 million, even before taking into account the demolition of perfectly good State assets, some of which had recently been refurbished.
Including all the studies, consultancies, PR campaigns and the rest, a very conservative estimate of the waste is €275 million.
Bertie's other pet project, the Media Lab, collapsed. It got €35 million of State money. Will we get it back? For an answer, I refer readers to the reply given to a question about whether those making large donations to Ray Burke would get a receipt.
The abuse compensation deal. The Comptroller and Auditor General reckoned that the cost of this deal will be about €825 million, but last week's court award to a victim of abuse suggests it could be much higher - let's say €1 billion.
Let's accept, generously, that the State should have agreed to pay half of this and that it will get €100 million from the Church. That leaves €400 million of completely unjustifiable expenditure.
Electronic voting. This idiotic project has cost the best part of €60 million and, by the time we finally flog the machines to some electoral backwater (Florida, perhaps), the price tag will be about €70 million.
Health boards. It has been obvious for years that the heath-board system was on the way out, and this was accepted privately by the Department of Health. But before abolishing them, the Government hugely increased their number, so that all of the new ones would have to spend money on new headquarters, which would then be abandoned. The cost? God knows, but to take just one example, the East Coast Area Health Board spent €3.4 million fitting out new offices in Bray, which were then, predictably, left empty. Let's be generous and say that the overall wastage was €20 million.
Infrastructure overruns. Where do we start? The Liffey waste water treatment plan, up 1,759 per cent to £65.4 million from an estimate of £3.5 million? A drainage project in Cork up 4,530 per cent - to £144.7 million from £3.1 million? The national roads programme costing at least €6.6 billion more than was allocated? The Dublin Port Tunnel going from a €165 million estimate to €625 million?
Even accepting that some of this reflects gross underestimates in the first place, there's surely at least €1 billion of waste in all of this. That's at least €1.5 billion in waste and it would be easy to find more.
The simple truth is that money for things ministers like has never been a problem. Money for old people who have worked all their lives and deserve a bit of dignity is another matter.