Sir, – Daniel Geary has reached a series of rash conclusions about the recent US mid-terms which are not borne out by the actual election results (“Republicans may have been big losers this election, but Democrats were not big winners”, Opinion & Analysis, November 12th).
He says that the underperformance of the Republicans “may be a sign of long-term decline” for the party. However, with counting almost complete the popular vote tallies show that, notwithstanding the poor performance of their candidates in key races, the Republicans received 52 million votes (52 per cent) compared to 47 million for the Democrats (47 per cent).
The Republican vote in congressional elections has risen from 45 per cent in 2018 to 47 per cent in 2020 and to 52 per cent last week, the party’s highest vote share since 1946. How does this point to a “long-term decline”?
Mr Geary also says the Republicans have a “demographic problem” caused by their failure to court what he calls “Latinx voters”. Again, this is simply not borne out by the results.
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Extensive exit polling conducted by CNN shows that Republicans were supported by 39 per cent of Latino voters last week, up from 32 per cent in 2020 and 29 per cent in 2018, with Latino men now almost evenly divided between both parties. This represents an extraordinary improvement in Republican fortunes among this demographic, a factor which was key to the landslide re-election of Ron DeSantis as governor of Florida.
Mr Geary also leaps to the assumption that since voters under 30 supported Democrats by a two-to-one margin, that they will continue to do so in the future and hand that party a long-term advantage. This ignores the unfortunate reality that young voters inevitably become older voters, and not everyone supports the same party throughout their lives. In 2008, Barack Obama was also supported by two-thirds of those aged under 30. Those same voters are now aged between 30 and 45, and 48 per cent of them voted Republican last week.
Anyone choosing to ignore the underlying realities of the recent election results and preferring to interpret them as a crippling blow to the Republicans is setting themselves up for a grave disappointment in 2024. – Yours, etc,
BARRY WALSH,
Clontarf,
Dublin 3.
Sir, – Una Mullally’s article “It’s abortion stupid. How Democrats can win the US presidential election in 2024″ (Opinion & Analysis, November 7th) appears misguided in advising Democrats to focus on abortion rights in the lead-up to the next presidential election. In the midst of a cost-of-living squeeze affecting working and middle-class Americans and a looming recession, it would seem wise to prioritise economic issues rather than social issues at the next election. Indeed, failing to focus on the economic woes of ordinary Americans would leave such a space open for a Republican candidate to set the narrative or campaign on an economically populist platform. The fact that Donald Trump and the Republican party were able to make huge inroads in formerly blue states of the rustbelt in 2016 (flipping both Michigan and Wisconsin) ought to highlight the danger of complacency on this issue.
Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that while more and more Americans are willing to vote to protect abortion rights when asked via state referendums, fewer are willing to vote for a Democratic candidate who happens to be pro-choice. In Michigan this week, far more people voted for Proposal 3 (which added the right to abortion and contraception to the state constitution) than voted for the Democratic candidate for governor, despite the latter’s focus on abortion during the campaign. Similarly, a majority of voters in Kansas were willing to vote to protect abortion rights in August but have not been willing to back a Democratic candidate for president since 1964. This suggests that Democratic candidates’ policies and message fails to resonate effectively with voters, despite the latter being increasingly pro-choice. Therefore, it would seem to follow that Democrats should focus on issues affecting most Americans and appealing to as many as possible, rather than focusing on abortion rights. – Yours, etc,
OWEN O’LOUGHLIN,
Cherrywood,
Dublin 18.