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General election – it’s still all to play for

A significant adjustment from previous polling indication trends

Letters to the Editor. Illustration: Paul Scott
The Irish Times - Letters to the Editor.

Sir, – Following on from Barry Walsh’s detailed analysis (Letters, July 16th) of general election outcomes for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil shortly after previous local election results in 2014 and 2019, one distinction to note is that before 2020 both parties had not previously entered coalition government together.

In Irish general elections, typically a coalition government can be formed once parties together would have in the realm of 42 per cent or above of the popular vote.

In the recent local election results, Fine Gael obtained 23 per cent of the popular vote, while Fianna Fáil received 22.9 per cent. When combined, this support at just under 46 per cent would represent a significant adjustment from previous polling indication trends in recent years as it would be four points above the typical threshold for the basis of a stable coalition government to be formed with the current administration parties. – Yours, etc,

Cllr JOHN KENNEDY,

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(Fine Gael),

Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown County Council Offices,

Dún Laoghaire,

Co Dublin.