Sir, - Niall O'Dowd (July 30th) calls on all sides to "acknowledge the new dawning reality of the changing numbers". Indeed, Mr O'Dowd should acquaint himself with the latest statistical evidence. For the first time in the history of Northern Ireland, the majority of births are non-Catholic and have been so for four years. This fact, coupled with the differential emigration rates, will ensure that the Catholic proportion of the population will rise to perhaps 48 per cent and then plateau before falling.
It might not suit Mr O'Dowd's romantic vision, but the Catholic population is now just as aware of contraception and the economic difficulties encountered in very large families as the Protestant community. The Catholic birthrate has plunged and is outstripped by the evangelical sections of the Protestant community. Therefore, there will be no Catholic majority in Northern Ireland.
Further, there will be no nationalist majority - since no significant section of the Protestant community is prepared to countenance a united Ireland and since there will be no Catholic majority. Mr O'Dowd should know that many Catholics vote for the SDLP out of what might be termed "sectarian advantage": the SDLP will stand up for the rights of Catholics as Catholics on employment and justice issues, as well as presenting a Catholic viewpoint on moral issues such as the extension of the 1967 Abortion Act to Northern Ireland.
This should not be confused with support for a united Ireland. A representative study of SDLP voters conducted by Queen's University after the 1992 general election found that a majority sought a largely internal settlement, though for many their support for the status quo was predicated upon a power-sharing arrangement in Northern Ireland. Only 25 per cent of SDLP voters actively sought a united Ireland. Recent opinion polls have likewise found that while a majority of Sinn Fein voters seek a united Ireland, a significant minority seek a new dispensation within Northern Ireland.
Mr O'Dowd should remember that a united Ireland will require a positive vote in a referendum and that the SDLP and Sinn Fein gathering a majority of the vote in an election will not suffice. Northern Ireland does not require transitional arrangements, as there will be no transition. - Yours, etc., Steven King,
South Parade,
Belfast 7.